Dialogues on Strait Talk: "You Shall Not Pass!"

Attribution: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Dave S., Mark M., Mark O., Dennis C., John K., Michael D., and Geoff Carter

David Sanger (NYT) asks the right question;’:

“President Trump’s decision to blockade all Iranian shipments out of or into the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning sets up the next great test in the Iran war: Which side can endure more economic pain, Tehran’s new leadership or Mr. Trump himself?”

My money is on the Iranians. If gas goes up another buck, the screaming here will be louder (and considerably less joyful) than a 1964 Beatles Ed Sullivan appearance.

–MM

Open the Strait! The one that was open before we started this war. You say it is open, just not to ships that support the war that we started? Well then we’ll close it, so there!

WTF is going on here?

–MO

Trump’s popularity and credibility continue to circle the drain. He simply cannot resist daily verbal and social media outrages.

Meanwhile, JD Vance had a pretty good outing in his high profile role as chief negotiator. He appeared dignified and reasonable. He avoided throwing verbal bombs at his Iranian counterparts.

It seems inevitable that the midterms will go very badly for the Republicans. At that point, they will be looking at two more years of insane lame duck Trump as their leader.

The growing disgust and fatigue with Trump in the electorate would not be good for any Republican Presidential nominee in 2028. Vance, in particular, will have a difficult time extricating and distinguishing himself from the ongoing Trump disaster. (You can see him already trying.)

So that raises a possibility. Will Republicans be ready for a constitutional coup against Trump? This would allow them to install Vance, a veritable paragon of dignity and decorum (compared to Trump), as POTUS. So then, in 2028, their candidate would be running as an incumbent.

There are two possible avenues. One, the 25th Amendment, seems tricky and far-fetched. But what if the new Dem majority votes for another impeachment? There are plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors to choose from. Would enough GOP Senators get on board to reach the two-thirds majority needed for conviction?

The mind reels.

–MM

Give you A for creativity. Love to see a change in POTUS but I fear it is pure fantasy whether the change is R led or D led). His base is too strong. Quietly, there have been some changes, more than just whackos like: namely, immigration, (border control, not the ICE horrors) and some levels of less government spending.

On the other hand—never mind the November blue wave for a second. I’ve been thinking lately about the last 2 years of any presidency. Suddenly the camera turns to “the field”—both parties. Makes for great press…debates…the six sigma candidates (Marianne Williamson (the psychic), Ross Perot, Kamala Harris (ouch)…).! So

a. Trump won’t like that…he can’t look at a mirror all day.

And b. Maybe the congressional right will, as Geoff says, grow a spine. I suppose a November blue wave would hasten that growth.

Another positive: Many have been thinking…how the f am I going to endure (4) years? Well, it may only be 2. The last 2 may flip the switch and many will enjoy watching a slow painful demise.

BTW: The 2028 election will be known as the year of the Polymarket. Record betting. Like Giannis w/ Kalshi, invest now!

-d.

Interesting to speculate about 2026 and beyond.I just don’t see the Republicans truly revolting against Trump and removing him from office if he’s impeached after the 2026 elections. 60 votes are still needed in the senate to remove him. Hell, if the Repubes (couldn’t help being sophomoric) didn’t vote to remove him after Jan 6 I just don’t see it happening now. His true base support will likely hover at 30-35 percent. That’s a lot of constituents and voting power.

That said, the one consistency throughout the last 10 years has been the wild unpredictability that Trump brings to the table.That’s one of his super powers, I think.

On a somewhat related note, what the hell is really happening in Iran and the Middle East? The US and Iran agree to a 2 week truce and then the US blockades Iran. Hardly seems like good faith negotiating! Lucy pulled the ball away from Charlie Brown at the last moment again. Gotcha.

And are any ships with oil getting through?

China lurks on the fringes waiting to intervene and usurp US credibility. Wild stuff. Reminds me of Laurel and Hardy or the Keystone cops.

–JK

Iran’s economy is already a shambles. It wasn’t in that great of shape even before this war.

So, as Mike Murphy says, which is worse? Getting one grand piano dropped on your head? Or two? In other words, will the economic pressure on Iran, from the blockade, really matter?

Meanwhile, Iran can’t break the blockade, but it can make things worse. They are already threatening the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea.

Trump has painted himself into a corner. His only options are bad.

You’ve both offered fairly persuasive arguments against Repubs participating in a coup. As Dave states, there is some progress toward conservative goals buried under the Trump debris. And since, for politicians, job security is Job One, John is prolly right that a revolt is not gonna happen. Really, what’s in it for the Senator who votes for impeachment? Not much.

But these last 2 years are going to be a nightmare for our country. Trump has already destroyed foreign aid, the Justice Department, the EPA, federal education aid, the CDC. He has damaged Science. What will be left?

–MM

I’m not sure if the far right is washed up yet. Trump is just the clown mask they’ve been wearing. The Heritage Foundation, Hillside College, and the billionaire boys’ club are not going to tuck tail and go home. The question is who will be their new Pennywise. Vance? Maybe, he’s the apprentice of Peter Theil, billionaire fascist misogynist, but I agree with Mark that his brand is probably tainted. Rubio? He stinks of the Orange Pretender, too.

I think this far-right wing of the party will survive, but I wonder if the Republican Party as we know it will continue to exist—perhaps a more moderate strain will emerge in response to what I believe will be a strong left-leaning FDR-type democratic bent. Of course, all of this is contingent on whether we’re still around.

The War in Iran will be Trump’s downfall; maybe that’s our silver linings playbook.

Yes, the far right we will always have with us.

But without Trump, their influence will be greatly limited. Only Trump himself commands that level of insane loyalty. I don’t think there is Trumpism without Trump.

Before Trump came along, it really looked as if a split was inevitable between the Walk St/Main St/pro-business Republicans, and the fire-breathing Freedom Caucus. One side wants to maintain the status quo, while the other side wants to burn it all down. Trump united those wings and papered over their profound differences.

I do see the GOP heading for a split, after the Fall of the House of Orange. But events may cause them to reunite.

My biggest fear is not war or terrorism, but a debt crisis. If the market loses confidence that the US can pay its debts, we’ll be in another world.

-MM