Dialogues on the Worst of Times: Getting Up Off the Mat

Illustration by Michael DiMilo

Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Mark M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., and Geoff Carter

November 6, 2024

Good morning bots,

What so good about it?….. F!

Have to type…to vent. Randoms:

Had Joe made his decision earlier and a proper dem primary occurred and a male been chosen…would the sexist card being off the table for bros of various skin color…and sexist women too…swung the election? My bet is it would absolutely have been much closer but crap, with the landslide, Trump’s anger-anger-anger strategy may have been unbeatable. It feels good, self-righteous, to be pissed…addictive…cult forming. Just ask Adolf.
Looks like he’s going to win the popular vote too! Un-fricking-believable. For the next (4) years whenever I’m in a public place I’ll look at my fellow Americans with a callous eye. Odds are most of them are selfish, sexist, isolationists.
I guess the polls were inaccurate and more telling, the betting odds were spot on. Polymarket and others will enter the popular lexicon every 4 years (2 considering Senate/House races), from now on. It, (and others), have only crept into my consciousness the last few weeks.
I feel “badder” for the people of Ukraine and Gaza/Lebanon. But who knows, let’s see if Trump can end the Ukraine war in one day as he boasted. How much he hands over to Vlad, and how long Zelensky stays alive.
Both surprised and depressed at my fellow badgers. Thought we were automatic after Tony beat Walker and then Michels. Wait…Tony is a white, male.
Look no further than the margin of victory for, solid as a rock Tammy—razor thin— the lethal cocktail of sexism and anti-gay (anti DEI, Mequon Moms, Moms for Liberty…) is acrid on one’s tongue.
More nausea ahead as all those people we thought would fade away, (ao, tucker…will Rudy G’s wealth be reinstated?) are now re-empowered. Not to mention the rolling coal pick-up boys on county roads. They now have the green light to pillage.
In historical context, it’s not The Holocaust or Hiroshima, but in some ways more depressing. And it could be a precursor to something akin to both. Let’s see if we have any guardrails standing 4 years from now. Term limits?
Positives:

Tammy appears to have survived. Na, na, na….na, na, na….hey, hey, good-bye Erik the red.
There are other small D victories out there. The seat in MD where the very popular ex R gov Larry Hogan was defeated by a black woman is a little shocking…telling of just how different a blue demographic is from a red one. Angela Alsobrooks. And she won handily!
Fingers crossed on the House. A snow fence of a guardrail as I type. Be great to no longer hear, nor see Mike Johnson standing behind trump during state of the union yarns.
With Hillary, I was shocked. With this one, I’ve been dreading it for months. I guess that’s a positive in that I longer have my head in the sand.
Kari Lake lost. A figurehead of the shocking number of women that weigh isolationism and anti DEI above women’s reproductive rights and inclusivity.
I guess the Dem governor in NC, Josh Stein retaining is a positive, though I firmly believe he won becuz he is white and the challenger lost because he is black. The fact the challenger—Mark Robinson—declared himself a black Nazi on a porn site, probably made the race closer than had he not. Wait…is that jaded?…or frank?
I give a lot of credit to Kamala. She gave it her all. Some criticize her about not getting specific about some issues, taking the hard interviews…but not me. She had such little time and her specifics outweighed Trump’s by…well 10 to zero? 100 to zero?—so I have no patience for that criticism. Besides, it was not an effective campaign strategy.

The one specific I wish the Dems would’ve jumped on was the economy whining. Someone, Obama…Bill Clinton, maybe some “impartial” person in the press should’ve just explained the facts of covid. Had Joe or K tried this it would sound like they were making excuses. The supply chain disruption had the entire world economy on the operating table. Joe (blood thinner—aka Infra bill, chips act…) and Jerome Powell (recession damping via interest rate hikes)–the yin and the yang) did wonders to resuscitate it. It wasn’t Trump’s fault, it wasn’t Joe/Harris’s fault—it was covid’s massive, long term supply chain (includes employment) disruption. Absolving Trump from fault might have given the speaker credibility with the minds he/she was trying to win over. It will take decades for Joe to get credit for the many good things he did.

The process is over.

-d.

Reviewing my predictions, I am disappointed. In my performance. I really did think that Harris was going to squeak by in enough battleground states.Clearly that was “wishcasting”. I allowed my predictive powers, such as they are, to be overwhelmed by my emotions.

But hey! Somehow Tammy beat Hovde. I think this helps to define both the power and the limits of Trump’s appeal. He himself is a Teflon colossus. Nothing sticks to him or lowers his popularity. It took a pandemic to barely dislodge him in ’20.

Voters love Trump because he’s a brash non-politician. He is authentic in a way that politicians never are. He is uninhibited by political convention, common courtesy, or personal shame. He says what is on his mind. That genuineness is what people love. Clearly they don’t care WHAT he says. Just that he says it.

But the appeal stops at him. It doesn’t rub off on any other Republican. No coattails! That’s why Wisconsin split its ticket between Tammy and Trump. (I worked the polls in Milwaukee yesterday, and cribbed a glance at a couple hundred ballots as we were manually splitting the votes between wards. I saw a number of ballots split between Trump and Gwen Moore, for chrissakes.). Arizona voted for Dem Ruben Gallegos (over Kari)–and–for abortion rights. while also supporting Trump (results not final yet). The Trump brand reigns supreme, God help us.

Trump praised his own political movement. And he can surely bask in its glory. But it’s a movement of one person, not at all broad-based. Everyone else is along for the ride. And this will give him tremendous power over Republicans in the House and Senate.

It’s too early for the detailed post mortem, but it’s pretty clear that women– and probably the highly desired suburban women–didn’t turn out for Kamala. Bots, do you recall our analysis after Dobbs? As I recall, there was pretty much a consensus in this group that the abortion issue wouldn’t have “legs”. Then, abortion referenda, even in deep red states, started going the pro-choice way. Dobbs looked to be inspiring a real women’s movement! Well, I’m here to say that we were probably right in the first place. The abortion issue might do well in votes over constitutional amendments and the like, but it’s still not doing all that much for actual candidates.

What happens now on abortion at the national level will be fascinating. You know that the pro-life, anti-contraception forces are going to pressure Trump and the Republicans for payback on their unstinting support. But these nutty laws will continue to be unpopular. How far will Trump and the Senate Republicans go to mollify the pro-choice Right?

Dave, I also look at other Americans with a jaundiced eye now. And, from the results we’ve seen, it’s MOST other Americans. Trump’s phony macho appeal–and it IS phony—has carried the day with men. Somehow I have to come to terms with it, that I’m in a mental minority. It kind of feels like the Walker & Fitzgerald takeover of Wisconsin in 2010, except this time it’s the entire country.

The gloating is going to be tough to take. But that high will fade. The media isn’t giving up on this guy–he sells papers and clicks. So it won’t be long before one of his administration’s bozos gets caught in some really egregious corruption. Remember, the conservatives aren’t “sending their best” to the Trump administration. It’s going to be a collection of second rate yes men.

You’re right–it’s not Hiroshima or the Holocaust. But some serious damage is going to be done to women’s rights, immigrants (expect a wave of self-deportations), the separation between Church and State, the administrative state (SCOTUS will continue destroying that), and the environment. And, most depressing, is the damage to our politics. This might sound like hand wringing and unjustified nostalgia, but politics didn’t use to be an all out civil war.

Beez, in 1986, the two parties actually got together and saved Social Security–not a perfect fix by any means, but a fix. Can you imagine ANY KIND of fix on a major issue–entitlements, the deficit, guns, immigration? We’re drifting into a dirty stagnation. Going down the toilet, you might say. And with crude, vulgar rhetoric at the top, we’re going to continue the slow breakdown of civil society. Bots, we’ll be ok. But my grandchildren will grow up into a crappier world. It’s not clear that a Kamala win would have been a panacea for this issue, but putting Trump in there is orders of magnitude worse.

-Mark M.

I woke up Tuesday morning feeling pretty sure Harris would win. I believed that the outlandishly boorish behavior of Trump and his surrogates in the last stage of the campaign would turn off enough women to make the difference. Apparently not. Or it may have turned off enough women from voting for Trump but did not motivate them to vote for Harris. Turnout was way down. Trump actually won fewer votes than in 2020 but Harris won many millions fewer than Biden. Turns out voters in the U.S., like voters almost everywhere in the world, want change. Any kind of change. Or even just the promise of change. A candidate who promises no change will have a pretty small base. “Nothing comes to mind” was the exact wrong answer to the question, “What would you do differently than the Biden administration?”.

Congratulations to Wisconsin on being the closest of the battleground states for the presidential election. Still, it was shocking to me how close the Baldwin/Hovde outcome was. A longtime incumbent should not have such a struggle. Trump’s coattails aren’t that big. Tammy needs to recalculate her strategy if she runs again in 6 years.

The abortion issue has some legs on a state-by-state basis. I think it made a difference in the AZ Senate race (Gallego-Lake). It’s clearly not a dominating issue nationally. The Supreme Court made it a state-by-state issue and that’s a reality we’ll have to live with (perhaps for a generation). Unless the Republicans have a fevered death-wish, they aren’t going to pursue any sort of nationwide ban.

To paraphrase the great Betty Davis: buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

MarkO

Appreciate all of that—have a couple fresh inputs and want to respond/piggy back to both Marks.

First and foremost I’m ready to blow a gasket at our news sources. See the Polymarket (betting graph below). The graph is not hindsight, it documents the gap in what people were betting in 2024.. I’ve heard too many credible people telling me about this, a few properly predicted the Trump landslide, one observed a big swing when Elon hopped up on that stage in Butler, Pa and there were several others. Yet I never, saw a whisper of this in the news sources, none, zero, glitch! It turned out to be spot on. It was also true—yet again that the “too close to call” Times/Sienna poll and others (Economists predictor, NPRs predictor), all were not even close. WTF? You’ve heard my suspicions before that the media loves a tight race…my journalist friends have no patience when I say this. Yet…inquiring minds want to know and this disparity is F’d with a capital F. There is also the common sense conclusion that money talks and if that many people—note the billion$$$ being bet on a candidate–they must know something, Perhaps the skin in the game makes betting more accurate than polls? There are many betting sites—Polymarket is but one.

The gap was obvious in early October, and widened daily. Landslide was obvious. Should’ve bet the farm. Do the bots see something silly/flawed with this?

Women! wow, so disappointed in what I’ve been reading/hearing. Closely related is sexism. Alive and well. To be clear, I feel sexism is strongest among men—all races, but I’ve read that many women did not vote for K or did not vote at all. Crap!, if abortion could not motivate them they must be sexist—at least a fair number of them. And to be perfectly clear, I’m calling women, not voting for H or K because they just don’t feel a woman should be President, is sexist. I’ll provide (3) bases for saying that. Hillary, Kamala and now Tammy. H and K lost. Tammy is loved by all, strong rural base, works hard, everyone likes her and she had a big lead….but then…not sure what happened…as MM points out no one sells divisiveness like Trump, so it wasn’t Hovde, yet I think there was a tsunami effect that affected/hypnotized many Wisco voters into voting for Hovde. So I do think Trump’s coattails, (his strategy of negativity), did hurt Tammy.

Further basis of sexism is Joe’s 2020 victory. Trump’s victories in 16 and 24 had (2) things in common:

Running against a woman. Sexism on the table.
Running NOT as an incumbent. This allowed Trump to scream (louder) that everything is wrong and disaster looms everywhere. Sorry if I said this too many times prior, but Psych 101, (and common sense), observes that identifying a common enemy creates group cohesiveness. Soars if identified by a master hawker/prevaricator. I think Trump’s formula is a simple as that. MM’s observance of genuineness, etc… are traits that make him the master, but it’s the strategy, getting everyone mad about something (anything really). It feels good to be angry…human nature to some degree. Nothing is your fault—it is always someone else’s. Trump pushed this button relentlessly. Pat Buchanan is credited with starting this this, (squashed by Bob Dole as to uncivil—credit to Bob), furthered by Newt G, amplified by Rush L. and perfected by Trump.

MO: Good point about the low turnout. 2^nd person to mention this. Shocks me. After all the press, the early voter turnout…all the polling…all the free concerts!….I thought for sure this would be a new record, not a regression.
My mind goes to the social fabric, the drooping soul of our country. What makes so many susceptible to this? I feel Noam Chomsky (his evil of marketing spiels) and Jimmy Carter—his malaise speech, identified this long ago. And today marketing has internet reach, huge databases, powerful algorithms, and AI. Watch out. Most Americans are living a zombie existence where their major reinforcement/happiness/satisfaction in life comes from 3 simple words: Add to cart. This obsession with materialism, makes them, (all of us), more prone to protectionism, isolationism, lower taxes, abandonment of social issues/programs that form the foundation of our society. Early childhood education, planned parenting, affordable housing, schools… all cost money. Maybe the independent candidates…or AOC and Bernie or Marie Williamson should be…I dunno…listened to. They would contend that Barack was no different then Trump—maintained the status quo, protected our 401ks, but no substantive progress on the foundation elements. But I should give Barak credit for the Affordable Care Act—that was big, continues to grow, get the kinks worked out. Old Noam quote attached. It states the obvious, but felt timely.

“As long as the general public is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful will do as they please, and those who survive will be left to contemplate the outcome.

–Noam Chomsky

-ds

Yeah. A bumpy ride indeed. But, ok, ok, not the holocaust or Hiroshima. I’m still processing, but I’m trying to be optimistic, accepting what I can’t change, yada, yada, and shying away from the depressing plethora of Doom & Gloom in Mordor prognosticators tearing their hair out throughout my favorite liberal media outlets. Like them, I obviously have not had my finger on the pulse of the American people. I admit, I just don’t get it. I thought the pendulum that’s been swinging to the right had reached a point where gravity and human reason dictated it had to swing back. But Trumpism defies the laws of gravity and the dictates of logic and reason. It’s some sort of black magic concoction of I’m not sure what–maybe a heady mix of toxic masculinity, ecstatic “part of a group” righteous-feeling anger, fear and loathing of the “other”, strong appeals to those powerful instincts still seated deep inside the amygdalas our big ape brains… Sigh. We live in interesting times.

I don’t get this either. I think a good part of it is pernicious and deliberate misinformation. Between X, Truth Social, and Fox News and others, unless you stuck with reliable news outlets and compared at least sources (as we were taught to do), it was pretty easy for the normal Joe and Jane to get bamboozled, but that doesn’t let them off the hook. How many Trump voters realize that we will pay tariffs? How many realize that yes, they do want to cut social security and that Musk meant it when he said “things will get hard” for a while? How many dismissed horrific tales of pregnant women dying for lack of prenatal care?

It was all there, staring us all in the face. And yet they chose not to believe the facts. I am beyond disappointed. Partly because of their willful blindness to the facts, but also to their misogyny, racism, and fear. My brother-in-law who lives near Wausau told me that one of the biggest issues was trans men using women’s bathrooms. And I guess it doesn’t matter that local farmers bring in thousands of migrant workers every harvest season. The short-sightedness just fucking kills me.

Will Trump do irreparable damage? Probably to the planet and probably to the country. Definitely to women’s rights. He has control of the Supreme Court and probably will have control of the justice system. Will there be mass arrests for crimes against the State? We might be speaking Russian and quartering North Koreans in our homes in a couple of years. Or worse.

As Marcellus said in Pulp Fiction after he was raped by the hillibillies, “I’m pretty fucking far from all right.” I think that applies to all of us.

As mentioned, I’m pissed about the media being caught with their heads in the sand—yet again—and being clueless about the laser accuracy of the betting markets.

I have no patience for the recriminations, the shoulda/woulda/couldas. It actually gives me some comfort, knowing now, that all the canvassing in the world would not help in this particular year. Dems had $$$$, abortion, an aging-teetering-madman as a foe….yet all useless against Trump’s anger spell. One other bitch—much is made of the “liberal elite” as if that demographic is at fault. David Brooks, ever the social scientist, tries to claim that the shift to tech workers and college degrees, from the trades have somehow auto shifted the middle class to Trump, and the dems were asleep at the switch. Huh? Ridiculous attempt at connecting effect with cause. It’s (now) clear the middle class did shift to Trump. However, one’s choice of vocation, plumber vs programmer, doesn’t determine one’s conscience. Jobs are what they are. They will evolve. The Dems (the liberal elite) not only can’t control that but don’t want to control that. The dems did tone down their stance on vital foundation issues requiring more taxes (early childhood education, low income housing, planned parenting, middle and upper education, DEI—(not even whispered during the campaign), rather, came to the middle on immigration, tariffs, no taxes on tips. But these foundation needs are not some esoteric liberal elite fancy, rather the base of Maslow’s pyramid, (below).

Androidmarsexpress, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

I sent a letter to the NY Times making a few points and asking them ‘bout the betting. (I was very cordial, complimentary, otherwise they would not read). I see they had an underling, write a short story about it today. Not suggesting it was due to me, but pretty soon EVERYONE will be asking that question. Watch for an onslaught of stories on election betting. “Greed is good, greed cleanses” (1) Perhaps the monetizing, skin in the game, (betting…big dollars…$3B just on the one site), is a distillation of polls and other sources, thus a reliable predictor. This year proved that they were way, way more accurate than the Times Sienna, Quinnipiac, Iowa Rotary (made that up…not sure who took the Iowa poll that had left us optimistic at the 11^th hour…).

Michael Douglas as ultra brash Gordon Gecko in the first Wall Street. Guessing mebots knew that, jic.

Polymarket Election Predictions

Last here’s a friend’s context comment on a large Madison school funding referendum (over $600M, we even voted to raise our own property taxes as part of that…22M) I thought worth sharing:

“We’re living in a bubble here, an affluent, overeducated city that votes itself a massive property tax hike in an quixotic effort to single-handedly repair the wrongs of slavery and reverse climate change. This was a vote against government, left politics and readers of the NYT. It’s not that working class people and small business owners stung by higher prices love Trump; they just don’t like us. As I’ve said before: do what you want just don’t touch my Social Security .”

At least Tammy hung on. She’s truly a fine person and a West High Regent.

-D

Bots,

I’d like to ruminate on Dave’s interesting topic, the electoral betting markets. There is said to be wisdom in markets, but sometimes I wonder. The value of any given equity asset on any given day really should reflect the future profitability prospects of that company, discounted back to a present value. That’s the rational basis behind stock prices. But when you see how stock prices gyrate on a day-to-day basis, and especially in periods of financial crisis, you have to wonder about the “wisdom” involved. Throwing darts beats the stockpickers in a non-trivial proportion of cases. Which is why my former company, Northwestern Mutual, eliminated its Public Equities department. They still invest in public stocks, but strictly in index funds.

Looking at electoral betting markets, I am even more confounded as to why these markets should accurately predict election results. There’s no argument that they were better than the public opinion polls, at least this time around. In fact, 5 minutes’ research finds this recent Newsweek article, which reveals that they’ve had a pretty good record over the years:

“According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted several of the most recent elections, with 77 percent of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years. In the 11 presidential elections since 1980, the only race where the winning candidate had worse odds than the losing candidate was in 2016, where both the betting markets and conventional polling failed to predict a Trump win. Betting odds have also correctly predicted close elections, including Barack Obama’s win against Mitt Romney in 2012, where Obama was given odds of -450, and even the extremely close election of 2000, where President George W. Bush was given odds of -150.”

–How Accurate Are Betting Odds at Predicting Elections? – Newsweek

The article goes on to quote an expert (some professor) who asserts that the betting markets should have a shot at accurate predictions when the universe of bettors is heterogenous and bringing “real collective wisdom” to the table.

My view is that, while the results of the markets may be good, I am highly doubtful that the investors in these markets are at all representative of the voting public, or heterogenous in any meaningful way. Does that mean the bettors are stupid? No. They each bring their own anecdotal and poll-influenced view of the election to the table. The only difference between us and them is that they’re willing to lay some money down.

Actually, however, when I think about it, maybe that skin in the game DOES make a difference. Think about it. I know that I am much less likely to predict a Packer win or result where the Packers beat the spread–when I have money on the line. Somehow that investment (and in my case, it is never a big amount) is enough to get me out of the “rah rah homer” mentality and into reality.

But…that hardly turns me into Jimmy the Greek. So, even while the betting market participants are presumably freed from most emotion, they’re no more knowledgeable than the general public. And certainly, given the high barrier to entry (how the hell do you even invest in something like Polymarket–it’s offshore, for chrissakes), these bettors are most definitely higher income than the voting public.Face it, these bro’s are the opposite of heterogeneous.

Also, I’d like to complain about Dave’s friend’s unkind comments about the Madison vote in favor of a school bond issue:

Ahem! Voters all over Wisconsin have been raising their own taxes for a couple of decades. The State of Wisconsin, under the leadership of Tommy Thompson, passed revenue limits on school districts, to prevent increases in that most hated of taxes — the property tax. Since then, school districts have been regularly going to voters, not only for funds for capital improvements (school buildings, pools, air conditioning, etc.) but for operational expenses. And these referenda have a way higher than 50% chance of passing. Oak Creek has raised its own taxes several times in the last decade, and we clearly are not supporting any woke causes.

I seriously wonder about this. People bitch and moan about taxes. But when it comes to their own communities and the kids in those communities, they generally see fit to pony up. I don’t get it. I think there might be a lesson in there for the Democrats, but I don’t know what it is.

–Mark M

Will limit myself to (2) items:

The betting markets. Thanks for that additional background on its accuracy. Two sub comments:

a. Just like stocks, there is something mysteriously accurate about the efficient market. Insider info explains the mystery, some say.

b. Like so many things tech, the algorithms, ai…basically the data available continues to skyrocket—thus the accuracy, I contend.

Joe Rogan. OMG!!! 45M to less than 1M. The ratio of “reach of Trump to Kamala. Let that sink in. It still hasn’t for me. But my son—who voted for K and London Breed—was screaming that in my ear 4 weeks ago. I blew it off. Here is 7 minutes that supports the import of Rogan. Note: you’ll hear a cute line in the below…something about the moms, who got behind the sons who could care less about Gaza and DEI while their insipid jobless sons are vaping and playing video games in their basements. Meanwhile their daughters were doing just fine… But that’s just a cute line—lots of those out there. I think the meat is the reach of 45M tuning into Trump and Joe Rogan, vs having, say 15,000 or so show up for a free Beyonce, Taylor Swift, The boss…etc. concert. Elon was another out of category add for ao.

Video: Galloway explains ‘aspirational masculinity’ and how it played into the election | CNN Business

-d

I don’t know about you guys, but I’ve been having to fight off a surprising malaise and dark feelings of foreboding since the election. Last night, I even had a series of bad dreams where I was in some sort of endless loop of confrontations and arguments–sometimes with Trump himself and sometimes with his various minions. The details are fuzzy, but I remember there was a crowd listening to us. I remember a freakish-looking Trump poking his finger in my chest and saying quite convincingly “I am Not poking my finger in your chest.” I appealed to the crowd, “Do you see this finger-poking?” I asked. To which they responded. “What’s wrong with you? He just told you he is not poking his finger in your chest.” …. Argh. My brain. That’s some weird shit there, man.

Watched Dave’s vid of esteemed Professor Galloway. Coincidentally enough, there was a commercial/preview for some new “Dune” film before the the CNN piece played In the preview a stern, autocratic (but hot) space queen on a space ship tells her space acolytes “Humanity’s greatest strength is The Lie… Humans are unreliable and therefore unpredictable.” …Interesting.

Anyway, looks like Mark was correct re. the Bro Vote. The bros went for The Lie hook, line, and sinker. Poor bastards. Like they’ll ever get out of their moms’ basements now. Wishful thinking on my part that All the Young Dudes would be too preoccupied with playing video games and vaping in the basement to vote. Can’t deny the power of frickin’ Joe Rogan. His shtick is red meat for the Bros.

If you keep watching the CNN piece, you’ll find it’s followed by an interview that reiterates what MarkO was saying about the Hispanic vote; that many Americans with Hispanic roots are more concerned about border security and economic security (first level of Maslov’s “hierarchy of needs”?) than they are about being seen as a homogeneous group based on their heritage. I wonder how this will work out for them now.

Re: Dave’s buddy dissing the school bond vote. The guy might have a point in general about quixotic Madisonians and their sweet bubble, but Mark is right about how school districts across the state now have to regularly appeal to local voters for extra funding. Even in Cudahy, where I taught for awhile and where everyone’s been broke-ass since the big factories there shut down, the local citizens approved of a tax hike to support their schools, showing that even in survival mode, humans can transcend the base level of Maslow’s “hierarchy of needs” to envision and materially contribute to a brighter future for the kids in their community… Ok, I feel a little better now…

-DC

Today’s NYT reveals some numbers. Turnout low in traditionally Democratic areas: Philly & Detroit environs. Milwaukee. Not everyone is a Trumper. But they just didn’t see any point in voting.

This takes a little of the shine off the Trump mandate. These same people who didn’t turn out for Harris also didn’t turn out for Trump. It’s not necessarily TrumpMorning in America.

The Democrats have to figure out how to motivate these people to vote. Pronouns ain’t gonna cut it. But it doesn’t mean that the Democrats have to suddenly try to turn themselves into store brand Trumps, either. There’s room out there to speak to people who have to work.

In Wisconsin, heads are being scratched over the split Trump-Tammy vote. This kind of split had not happened in 56 years. Tammy outperformed Kamala “especially in smaller counties where former President Donald Trump made his biggest gains and in election wards with lower incomes and lower rates of college education.” (Craig Gilbert in MJS.)…..One possibility in these places is that Trump attracted new voters to the polls or won over some traditional Democrats who weren’t as committed to voting Republican down-ballot.”

Per the article, Michigan also split—Trump + Dem Senator. Looks like Arizona is going that way too.

Bottom line: Democrats need not despair. They are within striking distance. 2024 is the last election that Trump will ever appear on.

Totally agree. In the 2026 midterms they could easily take back the House. I don’t believe there’s a mandate for the Republican agenda. Down ballot the Dems did OK this year. The top of the ballot was the real stinker. To my mind Trump would not have won either of his elections if the Dems had run a strong candidate. Hilary was a uniquely unlikable personality (deplorability goes around and comes around). Kamala was an empty suit, a lightweight frankly. She was a backroom DNC kingmaker, DEI candidate all along. If she had democratically won the right to be the Democratic candidate I think she would have gotten more benefit of the doubt about her vacuous policy (non) positions.

MarkO

Glad to see some of you coming up off the mat. Not me, not yet, still think too many are selfish, thus the Dems have a tough row to hoe. They want to do the right thing (and that is not “elite” ism—kills me they take a hit for “forcing” equality upon the middle class…but whatever for now…). On the half full side I received the next e-mail I’ll forward. Geoff first alerted us to Kirk Bangstad. What EXACTLY did he do/say that cost him $500M in defamation insurance?

Kamala was cast as the lead in a Shakespearean tragedy.

If you read down (the next e-mail) he has a map of all the blue governor states…something to be said for that. Was also impressed with his ‘get up off the mat attitude’.

Bangstad Email

Back to gloom and doom, the Tammy winning by such a narrow margin is a big fomenting negative. Too many advantages: track record, rural rapport, abortion….to quote Vince: “What the hell is going on out there?

-d.

Decades of the elite establishment harping on how working class men suck and then spewing outrage when that demographic abandons them in an election, that’s pretty rich IMHO. The establishment only likes working class men on Veterans Day, because that’s who fights their wars for them.

Turns out ridiculing and demeaning people isn’t the best way to win their loyalty. Go figure. BTW, working class women also voted in the majority for Trump. Trump is an abhorrent opportunist, but like all opportunists, he perceived the opportunity and seized it. Maybe the next election cycle the Democrats will act on the available opportunities. The first thing that needs to happen is to recognize that it’s the quantity of voters that matter in an election, not the quality of voters. That’s the way it should be IMHO.

MarkO

Yeah, ridicule is not gonna get you many votes. But,how do the Democrats say that the working class sucks?

I am totally on board with the idea that the Loud Left seems to have a death wish. Transgender rights! Defund the police! Sanctuary cities! Mandatory electric vehicles! Death to the gas stove!

None of those positions really attract the working class. But, while they can be (and are) made subject to savage mockery from the Right, none of these positions directly attack the working class.

So I’m puzzled as to how the Demon-crats are putting down workers.

Side note. I looked at election results in the South Shore burbs. These are all meat and potatoes, “beer track” rather than “wine track” or out of control crunchy like Dave’s ivory tower on the shoring Mendota. Harris performed well! In St Francis: Won by 21% out of 5600 votes; Cudahy: Won by 9% out of 9300; South Milwaukee: Won by 1.2% out of 11000 votes; Oak Creek (by far the richest of these cities), Harris lost by 5.4% out of 21000 votes.

Bottom line— despite the wailing and gnashing of teeth, the Democrats aren’t dead yet, even among the working class. What do Republicans do when they get into power? They overreach— every single time. And with Trump at the helm, they will be well on the rocks by 2026.

–Mark M

Trump is off & running with authoritarianism:

“Any Republican Senator seeking the coveted LEADERSHIP position in the United States Senate must agree to Recess Appointments (in the Senate!), without which we will not be able to get people confirmed in a timely manner,” Trump posted on X on Sunday. “Sometimes the votes can take two years, or more. This is what they did four years ago, and we cannot let it happen again. We need positions filled IMMEDIATELY!”

This is a power play. There are 3 goobers running for Senate Majority Leader: John Thune, the handsomest Senator since Mitt Romney; John Cornyn, the human Senator from Texas; and Rick Scott, aka Lex Luthor. Trump wants them to insert nose deeply into his fragrant ass.

The reality is, there is NO history of delays in Cabinet appointments, especially when your own goddam party has a 53-vote Senate majority. Advise & Consent to cabinet appointments by the Senate is actually written into that Constitution thing. (Fox News will be sure to complain!). Recess appointments are supposed to be for emergencies only.

Trump is trying to “own” the Senate leadership in a way that he could never own old Turtle Head McConnell. These guys are supposed to agree to give up a key part of their power in order to get the job. (How’d that work, Kevin McCarthy?).

It’s a move typical of a Victor Orban or Erdogan. (I will try to stay away from the H-word.)

Our only hope is for the Washington Post to fulminate against it! Where are you now, Jeff Bezos, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you!

-MM

Yep. It’s begun. Besides trying to own the Senate, I heard today—on a reputable news source (enjoy them while they last)—that the Trump minions are already making moves against the DOJ, laying the legal groundwork to go after Jack Smith, Alvin Bragg, and probably Fani Willis.

Democratic governors in the states formerly known as the Blue Wall are promising to protect threatened citizens: LGBTQ, female, immigrants, and journalists everywhere, but who knows how long that levee will stand? Trump already owns the Supreme Court. Now he’s after the Senate and the House won’t be far behind. If they don’t hold, what’s left? Will we have the opportunity to take back the Senate and the House in 2026 or will those institutions already be dissolved?

The Kirk Bangstad letter that Dave printed gets at the root cause of this mess—propaganda and disinformation. Don’t forget that Trump money bought Univision, the Spanish-speaking news channel (of Mexican origin, I believe). I like his comparison to the turn-of-the-century muckrakers like Sinclair. The trouble is that the original muckrakers weren’t in danger of being drowned out by social media. A modernization of the Fairness Doctrine and much stricter (or any) regulation of social media would really help—if it’s not too late.

But for all this doomsaying, we do have the people. Remember the woman marches for the MeToo movement? They were worldwide and they did make a difference. If these guys are really serious about trying to cut Social Security and Medicare, repeal Obamacare, or cause terrible inflation with Trump’s magic tariffs, there will be a mob with torches and pitchforks heading down to DC, or Trump’s Mar-a-Lago clubhouse. I hope—and I do think—there are enough (even those like Dennis’ friend who voted for Trump)—who won’t stand for these extremes. Let’s hope.

Sorry for the disjointed ramble.