Attribution: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Dave S., Mark O., Mark M., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
The Biden Administration is trying to shepherd through a Ukraine military aid package. By most accounts, this aid is critical in order to give Ukraine a fighting chance to maintain its resistance to the Russian military.
Republicans are insisting that substantive changes to US southern border policy be a part of any such aid package. The two issues are really not related, but the GOP ties them together rhetorically. “The Administration wants Ukraine to be able to defend its borders, yet won’t protect our own borders!” Yes, and Ukraine aid needs Mexico border changes just as a fish needs a bicycle.
I see the Biden administration missing a huge opportunity here. Biden, the candidate of the middle, needs to overcome the qualms of the Dem Left and actually carry out some kind of crackdown at the border. He is getting absolutely hammered on immigration. Every month, there are record numbers of illegal crossings, and the media is all over it. It adds to the generalized feeling of discontent that “things are out of control”. I listen to the Hacks on Tap podcast, and this is a theme constantly brought up by David Axelrod. Whether it’s the border, crime, or homelessness, regular non-political Americans are seeing a breakdown in what used to be called “law & order”. This pervasive feeling of a lack of control is going to cause voters to lean populist and authoritarian. Additionally, Republican governors have gone beyond the “stunt” stage and are shipping dozens of busloads of asylum seekers to NYC and Chicago. Unloading their own problem and creating one for blue mayors.
So, instead of jawboning Congress into accepting this cod liver oil of an Ukraine package, why don’t the Dems create and push for their very own border security package?Any such bill is going to be a bit of a shit sandwich for the Dems. It is going to possibly include a stricter version of prosecution for asylum purposes, thus making it harder to get asylum. Possibly it could expand Remain in Mexico, such that those applying for asylum don’t simply get paroled into the US. On the positive side, it could allocate more money to the immigration courts, thus having a positive impact onto the backlog. The Dems might even be able to get a resolution for the Dreamers if they (Dems) are willing to accept some negatives.
This is known as “compromise”. Biden would take a lot of heat from the Left. But the argument is that, if Biden loses re-election, the results are going to be a LOT worse for immigrants under Trump. And it is a proactive, positive approach. Currently, Biden looks simply trapped and unable to move. If he offers something and Republicans don’t accept, at least he has tried.
Mark M.
“Getting tough” on immigration is a winning strategy almost everywhere. People just can’t get enough cops, so increasing funding for ICE, INS, C&BP seems like a good political move for any electoral candidate.
Try on this scenario though. The Ukrainian project seems to have failed and I suspect Biden and his top advisors recognize this. How to spin that foreign policy failure with an election less than 11 months away? Keep battling the Republicans over funding for Ukraine and insisting that it be dealt with separately from border (ours) control legislation, well into 2024? Hold a hard line on these issues, knowing that neither will pass with no compromise with the Republicans? By springtime, it will probably be patently obvious to the electorate that the Ukrainian project has failed and the Dems can blame the Repubs for the failure based on (falsely) their failure to fund that effort in a timely manner. Then, pivot into a bipartisan alliance on a “tough on immigration” policy, to pass in time for every politician to run on their immigration vote before the November election.
Now that’s some electoral politics to ponder.
MarkO
I’ll start by quickly dismissing Rochester, Phoenix, Tucson (….Scottsdale…?…wherever….)’s assertion that Ukraine has failed. Au contraire, only the naïve believe a white/black result is likely. Rather, the resistance has won a long time ago. Mother Russia is the local apex predator, so to limit the bulldozing is a huge victory. One just needs to get off of the “let’s make everything nicey-nicey again…the way it was” naivete. Ain’t gonna happen given the local herd of grizzlies. Hold’en off the russkies with noth’en but mangy coyotes…(never mind the ballyhooed satellites…etc), … rather a bunch of 20-something Ukrainians with boots in the ground and cigarettes as there fuel…is big victory for Volodymyr Z. The US tech avoided the whitewash…but now this is a ground war.
Switching gears now to tonight’s debate—I watched number 1 but missed 2 and 3. Here’s what I saw tonight:
- Christie is the adult in the room. Crap, I’d almost vote for the guy. Did a nice job of telling Vivek what a dick he is. (Note: A smart dick is more dangerous than a dumb prick—the latter, one can manipulate).
- But Nikki is the one…not just what she says, not just the Koch funding, but the obvious fear Ron-Don has for her—goes after Nikki no matter the question—TELLING. She also had some good takes. She noted the Hamas attack was on Putin’s birthday. Hmmmm….maybe Vlad was the guy selling short?
- Ron-Don: I wish I could type all my takes on what a dumb prick this guy is. Just watching him trying to understand Vivek—keep in mind Vivek is the smartest of the 4…not the wisest…but the smartest and when he brings up a new topic…and Ron-Don is in the angled camera view…it is a LOL moment…I swear the furrow in Ron’s brows are telling…he’s trying desperately to process info and strategies he’s light years behind…if there was a cloud above his head (is there an internet meme out there?) it would say: “Hmmm, that makes a lot of sense…wish I would’ve thought of that…not sure I agree with it…not sure I understand it…not sure I’ll ever understand it…but I’ll have staff brief me on it after the debate…I kinds of like it…just have to stifle self from saying that’.
- Back to Nikki: Crap, I’d almost vote for her too. Basis: Our terrier slept 23 hours/day before passing away last spring. I know Biden sleeps too much, too. Sorry but even with a staff the Prez needs to be not only wise, but awake. (as opposed to ‘woke’)
- Yet, Vivek is value add—has info. Info is good. Went too far with is neo-fascism accusations…but he didn’t make many stop and say…”F…he’s right!” (but these were 20/20 historical quips…did not fool this ‘286 ‘ vintage bot.
- But Vivek harped on Nikki, Christie, and Ron not being able to name Ukraine provinces. Big miscue. Sent me right back to Gore vs Bush…the pivotal debate. Gore, with a big lead, scolding W for not being able to pronounce various heads of state’s names. Pure arrogance. As I was watching, I cried..”no, no, no…don’t look down on him like that Al…don’t do it”. But he did and W played it to a tee. Played the role of an ordinary American, not worried about pronunciations, rathe, blue collar values, true grit. He got that (appropriately and easily genuine), stiff upper lip and replied…”I may not know how to pronounce the name of the sultan of … but I do know what the people of New Jersey and West Texas (making this up…but that was the tone)…and a few weeks later Gore was toast. As they did the recount in FL…and some Republican clients of mine were nervous I quickly befriended them saying ….”I’m enjoying watching Gore die a slow death”. (I was really pissed at Gore, but still enjoyed watching him learn a difficult lesson…he later got divorced for cheating on his wife)
- The debate had 3 ladies asking the questions. Thought they did a good job of controlling things…but this can be done better. An interesting question re the very essence of Forensics: Should interrupting be allowable? We have the tech to give each candidate equal time. Personally I hope they use that tech one of these days—all mics turned off but the speaker’s mic. The interplay is no longer civil–pure adolescence…thank goodness Tim Scott and his stentorian vocal chords are gone. The ladies were good, someday society will no longer need the V-shaped neck lines and all the eye-shadow. It only detracts from their impressive IQs and ability to command.
- One more take on Ron Don: No one used the word mutilated once, save for Ron…who deployed it many times. I have total confidence in me-bots as to what topic he used it for.
- Hoping they continue to debate knowing something we don’t. That is: Trump won’t be allowed to run…either by Federal law, or Colorado case , or Georgia or whatever… Anyone but Trump is my rallying cry, so I have no problem with Nikki for 4 years. Nor Christie. Ron-don…yeah that would be bad, but at least he’s stupid. Trump is not stupid. (Vivek will be gone after tonight—bad lad, needs to take a 4 year time out).
-D.
Regarding Ukraine, I agree with Dave that it’s premature to call the Ukrainian defense of their homeland a failure. Press accounts and podcasts that I am aware of indicate that Ukrainians themselves are still fully committed to the fight, despite their terrible losses. It is true that the vaunted 2023 counteroffensive didn’t make much headway. But then, neither have the Russian offensives.
The Ukrainians have not succeeded in cutting off Crimea, but they have succeeded in making the Russian position there more tenuous. And an unabashed victory for Ukraine has been their ability to break the Russian naval blockade on the Black Sea.
So, while the war is dragging on, the “project” of Ukrainian sovereignty is alive and well.
I think it’s worthwhile to point out that the Biden-led international alliance is still holding up pretty well also. There have been a few cracks in the armor, notably Slovakia, but the major players are still committed.
One additional “positive”. This war, which involves no American or other foreign troops on the Ukrainian side, is serving as a valuable proving ground for military weapons and tactics. The use of drones by both sides, in particular, is eye-opening. Drones will be the shock troops in future land wars. One tidbit came out of a Times article describing Israel’s tank tactics in Gaza. The IDF has equipped most of its tank turrets with low tech “pergolas” (covers). These do a pretty good job of repelling missiles fired from Hamas drones. The source of this insight? The Ukraine war.
Regarding immigration and the southern border. It’s facile, in my view, to paint a needed reform of US border policy as simply a ratcheting up of the border police. Of course, it is true that that is an easy and always popular move.
But the problem at the border, any halfway serious observer can tell us, is not a shortage of US border patrol. The immigration situation has qualitatively changed for the worse, since the days when Reagan tried to defuse things with an amnesty.
It’s no longer a situation of mostly Mexican economic migrants crossing the Rio Grande to work here and send remittances home. At this point, the poorer nations of Central America have devolved into gang-run narco states. Families are fleeing to prevent the conscription of their sons into gangs. Subsistence agriculture no longer works, due to climate change. Add in the failure of an enormous state, Venezuela. And consider also that global migrants from Africa and Asia are trying to get in via the southern border.
It’s really unclear to me that the US can actually give asylum to every individual who deserves it. But the real issue is domestic politics. A broken border policy will lead inevitably to the ascension of authoritarian, populist government— like the states of Florida and Texas. This has bad effects all down the line, far beyond the border.
Finally–I think both Marks are probably too optimistic about the chance of Congress taking action on the southern border, be it now or next year. Republicans have zero interest in any fixes to the problem. They want the ISSUE.
Mark M.
I’m impressed. Ye bots have put forth some cogent and nuanced observations and theories about the political landscape re. the Ukraine and US border policy, not to mention the Republican debates. I’m trying to sort this all out:
First Ukraine: I’m intrigued by MarkO’s contention that Biden knows Ukraine can’t hold out against Russia much longer. Biden also knows the Republicans won’t compromise on their scheme to tie funding for US border security with funding for Ukraine. So since the Republicans won’t fund Ukraine, Biden can then spin the blame for the fall of Ukraine onto the Republicans.
And sure enough, Senate Republicans just blocked an emergency funding bill to fund the war in Ukraine and here’s what Biden had to say about that:
“Make no mistake, today’s vote is going to be long remembered, and history is going to judge harshly those who turned their backs on freedom’s cause… (those) willing to literally kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield and damage our national security in the process.”
MarkM and Dave express more optimism about Ukraine’s chances of survival, but either way, looks like Biden’s keeping his ass covered over there. But meanwhile, down on the border, Republicans are pointing their fingers back at Biden’s ass. And, as you guys mentioned, border security seems to be a bigger issue for voters right now than Ukraine.
For example, I have a couple of friends in Chicago who are kind-hearted souls, liberals to an unrealistic degree even by my bleeding-heart standards–and they are freaking out about all the migrants pouring into their city. Oh sure, they want to help, but they see the problem as scary, overwhelming, and under-resourced. So I don’t believe that even the left-wing of the party will balk too much about getting the borders “under control”. The means of actually achieving the illusive state of “under control”-ness on the migrant issue is the thing. Like MarkM said, the Republicans are content to poke at Biden by grandstanding on the border issue without actually supporting any realistic solutions.
All that poking must have finally gotten to Uncle Joe. During the Ukraine vote on Wednesday, Biden acknowledged that the border needs to be addressed. “We need to fix the border system,” he said. “It is broken”. Well, that’s a start.
Dennis C.
Fundamental to the Ukraine discourse is the idea of Ukraine “surviving” or “falling”. I don’t believe there is any possible world where that happens. Ukraine will certainly survive regardless of what the Congress does, it will just be smaller in terms of territory and much smaller in population and economy (due to emigration mostly). I know my fellow bots will disagree on the basis of Putin being a deranged homicidal maniac, but I don’t think there’s evidence for anything other than the “homicidal” part. I’ll stick to what I stated a year and a half ago, Russia doesn’t want to own a broke-ass Ukraine, even if they largely broke it.
MarkO
Good call, MarkO. Even when Ukraine was part of the Russian empire, and then part of the Soviet Union, it was always “Ukraine”. So yes, Ukraine won’t go away any more than the Deep South went away after the Civil War (despite my fondest hopes).
Ukraine has always had that independent identity, which is why Stalin singled it out for a state sponsored famine in the ‘30s.
The question now is whether Ukraine will govern itself or be governed from Moscow. Putin’s original blitzkrieg against Kyiv bogged down amid muddy roads and poor planning in 2022. That actually was essentially a coup attempt. Failed!
I tend to agree that Ukraine should be able to maintain its political independence. And the boatloads of foreign aid will ensure that. But they’re not going to be able to roll back the Russkies’ gains, barring a change at the top in Moscow. Hey didja hear Putin’s running for reelection? Looking forward to those debates!
The eventual armistice will probably be bitter and de facto, rather than negotiated. Probably like after the Korean War.
Mark M.
Sorry I’m so late in responding to this, bots. As things have been going in Congress since the first email in this thread, it looks as if Biden is leaning towards some pretty draconian Republican measures for immigration. It is, as Dennis stated, a problem. Our sanctuary cities are getting overwhelmed. I don’t know if there is a fair, humanitarian solution. I would love to say, “Come on in, the water’s fine”, but we need to regulate the flow. As to Ukraine, I agree with Mark O. that it will continue to exist in some form, although I hate to think they’d have to take a huge step backward under Russia.
Maybe Biden toughening up the border—at least temporarily—might not be such a bad idea. Another solution (called in from left field) might be to form a coalition of Central and South American states to help deal with the problems. Maybe Mexico could put a few of these up in one of their guest rooms (many of the immigrants are refugees from Central America). Maybe American companies who hire Mexican workers (especially in the construction industry), or the states in which they are based (Texas, Arizona, or New Mexico) could sponsor these workers as citizens and offer them shelter.
Aid Ukraine and securing our border should be apples and oranges, not a gigantic clusterfuck. Leave it to the House.
G