Attribution: Petty Officer 2nd Class Jordan Jennings, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
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Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Mark M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., John K., Michael D., and Geoff Carter
Bots,
Allow me to interrupt your nonstop chanting of “USA! USA! USA!” for a few brief moments, with this unfortunate note of warning.
Commandante Trump has not ruled out the deployment of US ground troops to Iran. “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground–like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it.”
Meanwhile, a quiet drumbeat is building with regard to the known quantity of 60% enriched uranium possessed by Iran–some 800 or 900 pounds of it. It is believed to be deep underground at the Fordow site, according to my MSM sources. The uranium is in gas form, and would need to be enriched further (to 90%), and converted from gas to metal, in order to be useful in a missile. (For dirty “suitcase bomb” purposes, I’m not sure what additional processing would be needed).
Iran hawks in the US pundit class are making the case that the world won’t be safe until that material is confiscated from Iran. Since the new boss of Iran (substantially the same as the old boss, hat tip to Pete Townsend) will never agree to giving up the uranium, especially now since we and Israel have bombed the living shit out of them, it will need to be taken by force.
I don’t think this is a Special Ops job. Delta Force and the Seal Teams can do a lot, but this sounds like an industrial scale operation. First, the buried material must be located and unearthed. How many canisters are involved? I’m thinking at least dozens, if not hundreds.I don’t think Seal Team Six can do a smash-and-grab on this stuff. We would need heavy equipment on the ground (and once again, I don’t think Iran will be volunteering any of their remaining Caterpillar machines). And, crucially, we’d need time — weeks, at a minimum. Could we carry the stuff out by helicopter? If not, we’d need to transport it to an airfield and pick it up via fixed wing craft.
This sounds like a major job that, if undertaken, would require American control of a decent sized swath of the Iranian landscape. A few square miles, at a minimum. I don’t think that the Revolutionary Guard or the regular Iran army would be up to contesting this occupation. But we’d have to make absolutely sure that no missiles remain to be launched in its direction.
We’ve got a couple engineers on this thread. What say you, bots? You’re retired. Are you volunteering to supervise this absolutely critical de-nuclearization operation? Your grandchildren will thank you.
Mark M
No, no, and Hay-elll no. My grandchildren (my first is on his way) will have to survive by their own. and hopefully, their parents’ wits. All I can provide is some logistical cash to help escape the oncoming political, economic and environmental armageddon. Best wishes to all bots and their progeny.
MarkO
Hey bots,
Yeah, things are not looking good. Trump has been pressuring his NATO “allies” (using the “I’m only your boyfriend when I’m horny” sensibility) to help patrol the Strait of Hormuz. To their credit, they’re telling him to go after the proverbial rolling doughnut. Getting NATO involved would be a giant step towards WWIII—and I don’t think I’m being an alarmist. Five thousand marines on amphibious vessels are in the vicinity. I only hope that the invertebrates in Congress start standing up on their hind legs. We’re seeing small signs of that already.
After FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened to pull the licenses of networks (which he has no power to do) for broadcasting negative news about the Iran War, Senator Ron Johnson (of all people) condemned his comments, saying that we should protect the First Amendment. What? Ron is cutting the umbilical? Crazy, man. Crazy.
Trump has no business managing a war. He cannot seem to overcome his petty jealousies, affronts, and emotional constipation. The fact he refused President Zelensky’s offer (out of wounded, no doubt) to bring the world-class Ukrainian anti-drone technology to American forces in Iran.
I feel bad for this next generation. We didn’t leave them a very good legacy.
G
MO: Congrats on the first GC!
GC: Thanks for that bit on RoJo. Truth stranger than fiction.
MM: Good leg work re the uranium conundrum. I see a 2nd career in logistics for you. C130s are key to short air strips and getting heavy copper out of Africa. The giant turbo prop blades provide additional lift.
Not much to add other than I asked our Persian family in laws—and they confirmed most of the diaspora, (from MSP to Tehrangelas) are dancing in the streets.
Senior Airman Melissa Sheffield, U.S. Air Force, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
–DS
Jumping back to this white hot topic: Here’s some unsolicited takes/predictions.
- This week could go down in history. Trump is in scramble mode. Already TACO’d on the bombing of the power plants “in 48 hours”. If you weren’t following, Iran shot back with a “go ahead, we’ll then mine the f out of the strait”—not just oil but telecom. Trump immediately folded—tho spun it 180 from that—which Iran immediately called another lie.
- Did we (the US) inadvertently show Iran that they hold the ultimate Trump card? Pardon the pun, but that strait (oops, another poker pun to be pardoned), is HUGE. I bet Iran didn’t even know it themselves.
- No expert but based on a lifetime of various and sundry Iran news bits and the Iranians I know (TAs at the UW teaching engineering, son’s in laws, others…), Iran is a highly advanced society. Their Achilles is corruption and neanderthal religious punishments (public hangings, stoning, amputations), but in terms of a technically savvy adversary you don’t want to mess with, they are one. Not all that different than Russia, except not as Imperialistic, (have they invaded anyone or just fought back aggressors?—e.g.: he Iraq war lasted 8 years. Israel sold Iran missiles back then. Israel hoped both sides would lose.) Trump missed this—I assume he was properly informed and didn’t listen, or he had fired those that had the guts to inform him properly. I haven’t mentioned Israel, but I hear they had something to do w/ this—and many pundits are quick to point to Netanyahu (Bugs Bunny) fooling Donald (Duck). I don’t put much stock in that, but who knows…our guy is easily fooled when “history beckons”.
- Pretty sure Trump will claim victory in defeat, (“we totally eliminated, this, that and the other thing”…never mind what the nouns are, “totally” is the key word and of course that is far from the truth).
- I’m guessing each of the “boots on the ground” uranium extraction scenarios has low success odds and high casualty predictions. (Where is it? How much is there? Is it booby trapped? Are there red herrings?—as MM pointed out down below). Trump will indeed have the yips.
- He desperately needs to control the bleeding. Once 401ks head too far south, all sorts of red lights turn on. Add to that gas prices, mid-terms and all sorts of secondary and tertiary goods—e.g.: fertilizer.
- Stability will slowly follow, but some nasty stuff is headed our way for years. Iran will figure out a way to bite back. We have steeled their resolve. A dirty suitcase bomb is one near term risk. A ballistic one is probably further off, but who knows how coy the Iranians have been. Various old school bombings in the US—drones built from kits, martyrs, water supply tampering…no end to the litany of options a bullied victim might turn to.
- The only positive I can see is the ME countries, suddenly seeing their skin in the game at risk and working toward world peace. Okay, that’s absurd. Maybe some guardrails.
The future’s so bright I have to wear shades a gas mask,
-d.
I’m not too worried about Iranian initiated terrorism in the West. It isn’t their M.O., although I suppose they could have a change in policy at any time. No, the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon was not terrorism. The embassy hostage incident could be interpreted as terrorism, but that was executed in their own country. Even that I feel belongs more in the category of political extortion with human bargaining chips. As I understand Shia culture, it is much more honorable to become a martyr oneself than to create martyrs on the other side.
I’d be surprised if Iran doesn’t already have dirty missile capability. They have ballistic and hypersonic missiles and it can’t be that difficult to substitute 60% enhanced uranium for the standard high explosives in the warheads. It only has to work well enough to trigger a geiger counter and widespread panic in Israel. On the bright side, that threat could be enough to deter Israel from firing genuinely sophisticated nukes in Iran’s direction.
Troubling times indeed. Can’t wait for that pastural national pastime of ours to kick off.
MarkO
Can’t believe this polymarket shit:
The Guardian: Polymarket Gamblers Threaten Isreali Journalist
–DS
You’ve piqued my interest Dave. What‘s the story behind these threats?
MarkO
Hey bots,
I think—and tell me if I’m wrong (I’m sure you will)—that this is a platform where real-time betting can occur.
I’m not sure how this sort of real-time gambling got so legal so quickly. Is this Polymarket the same sort of gambling app that got those NBA players for faking injuries? And, if my tired brain cells are working correctly, wasn’t there another scandal with some MLB players? This is just an accident waiting to happen—and it’s a case where one group of conspiracy theorists might see their delusions come true. “Oh, that NFL is rigged, man. They already know who’s going to the Superbowl in August.”
And betting on attack damages? What’s next? The amount of civilians killed in collateral damage? This is surreal—and not in a good orange sunshiny way.
G
Hi Bots,
This has a history of sloppy handling of classified documents and brazen international grift. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that someone with access to Trump might turn their insider information into a ghoulish cash grab.
MD
Perfect. That story explains it and then some.
Forgot to mention that Giannis just invested in one—see below. There was so much betting about him being traded in January, he figured he might as well make a buck off it. (pa doom, pa doom). He didn’t bet on either direction—which he could influence, rather, he benefited from the frenzy.
–DS
The ever-irritating Bret Stephens writes in the NYT of how “successful” the wad has been. All the lib weenie whiners don’t grasp the might of ou
r awesome military! he claims. There’s just one problem. He focuses solely on the tactical. Yeah, our jets are bombing the shit out of those radical Iranians! And taking very few casualties. But the Strait is still closed, and the oil markets are still freaked out. The Gulf States continue to take incoming. Strategically, this war is a disaster. Any fixed and mop up we do now will simply get us back to the economic status quo— if we are lucky. And the chances of regime change look nil. Nice job, 47.
-MM
Was just reading that token con… (and mentally ranting about him to self). This allows me take it out on my keyboard—piling on to MMs. Does Trump pay this sycophant?
For those that missed the article (actually there have been several).
A. You ain’t missing a thing (REO Speedwagon Rid’en the storm out).
B. BS tries to paint this war against others as triumphant. Ignores context, ignores technology, ignores anything not to his arguments POV…The Times is trying to be “fair and balanced” trotting this “sane” right leaning journalist out there, but what he’s producing is pathetic, not worth reading. I’ll give one example, he tries to make a point that the price of oil “ain’t that bad”—comparing it to other historical highs—totally ignoring the many factors at play (e.g.: no shale oil back then) and then states the Dow is not down…if you compare it back to such and such (he convienently stretches back to last June’s bombing of their nuke site, thus benefitting from a bunch of US GDP/AI driven growth since then). Poppycock! (aka soft excrement/dung). If you compare it to the start of this war it is way, way down. Like 8%. How that shit gets past his editor is shameful. See below.
Honestly, I start reading it in good faith…I need to understand the other side’s pov, need to meet half way, walk a mile in their shoes, bl, bl,…blah. But that assumes he’ll not play games…he does and one quickly concludes he’s wasting one’s times. Too bad he’s got a megaphone. Just like potus.
Graphic courtesy of DS
–DS
Cold hard facts, Dave! Very good. Wow, you must be retired to have the time to do that kind of research !
Jamelle Bouie, not a conservative, makes a great point in a recent column on the same NYT Op-Ed page. The Administration has demonstrated complete befuddlement over Iran’s reactions to the war. They’ve closed the Strait. They’ve bombed the Gulf States. Who could have predicted this, except….anyone! Per JB, this reveals Trump’s inability to perceive that other people snd other nations actually have agency. He is so wrapped up in himself that he cannot see beyond. He had no idea that DOGE would be unpopular. Or that putting a doofus at HHS would be considered dumb. Or that shipping migrants to a Salvadoran hellhole would be thought of as cruel. Or that entire cities would rise up against ICE. No clue whatsoever. And no interest in thinking about any of it.
As I write, Trump has TACO’d for the second time on his threat to Iran over closing the Strait. So it’s now a lock that it will be shut down for at least 10 more days. Boots are in the vicinity and on the way. Something like 4500 Marines snd a couple thousand from the 82nd Airbone. It’s a lock that they will be used “on the ground”. I wonder how Bret Stephens will find the silver lining then?
–MM
Add to the half dozen commonly recited reasons for starting this latest war with Iran, the unprecedented opportunity for the POTUS to manipulate the financial markets via social media posts. Call me cynical but I’m quite certain members of Trump’s close circle are making millions on inside information of what he plans to post on Truth Social that evening. On the bright side, if you can call “normal” market collapse that, Trump’s blatant efforts of market manipulation seem to be losing its effect. His misinformation posts over the weekend only resulted in a faint and fleeting boost to the markets today, followed by freefall.
I don’t know how this war will end but it is not likely to be via negotiation. America is universally seen as an unreliable negotiating partner (ditto for Israel). Some deals can be achieved by sucking up to Trump, but some countries don’t have that option due to domestic political situations. So war it is then. Buckle up!
MarkO