Attribution: Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash
Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Mark M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., John K., Michael D., and Geoff Carter
Bots,
Read the following at your own risk. This is inside baseball on the government shutdown. Prolonged exposure may induce MEGO (My Eyes Glaze Over).
There was discussion a couple months ago on the wisdom of the Democrats taking a stand on extending the ACA subsidies. The “con” argument was that Dems could be handing the GOP an escape hatch on the subsidies. If the Republicans were to agree to extending the subsidies, it would be popular, and would weaken the Dems’ overall health care argument.
Well, the Republicans never took the bait. There was some word, after the shutdown ended, that Trump was interested in extending them. But that was apparently stillborn and we’ve heard nothing more.
Amy Walter (you’ve no doubt seen her) explained it to me on Pod Save America. There is just no way in hell that Republicans would EVER have voted to extend those subsidies. This is because of the combined effect of Congressional district gerrymandering and voter polarization.
Of the 222 districts held by Republicans, all but 14 were won by Trump by MORE than 5 points. And 187 of those districts were won by Trump by more than 10 points. That’s gerrymandering & polarization at work. If ya live in a red district, you vote GOP. Crossovers don’t happen no more. Trump won a narrow popular vote victory. And when you consider that the winning margin was so concentrated in red districts, it’s even narrower.
Anyway. In all those safe red districts, the only electoral race that the Republican will ever face is a PRIMARY. These reps have voted some 60 times against the ACA. They are not about to break their anti-Obamacare streak, and risk being primaried from the right, in order to end any ol’ shutdown. And note that Trump’s lame duck status plays into this. He cannot bully these Republicans into supporting any particular aspect of the ACA that catches his fancy. They don’t fear him anymore. (Sure, he could threaten a primary challenge, but would he do it to force movement IN FAVOR of the ACA? That would be too bizarre.)
You have to figure that this was clearly understood by not only Mike Johnson and John Thune, but also by Schumer and Jeffries. The gov’t could have been kept closed until next November’s Election Day, and the ‘pubs still would not have supported extending the subsidies.
So maybe Schumer was more shrewd than he’s generally given credit for. The shutdown DID achieve the goal of increasing the salience of the healthcare issue. Not only the subsidies, but in general. And Trump & Co. are seen on the wrong side of an “affordability” issue–the cost of health care. And–probably unexpectedly–the Dems goaded Trump & Co into coming out hard against SNAP. Who goes to the Supreme Court in order to take food out of the mouths of hungry kids? To be clear, this was all apparent to the politically engaged. But it’s unclear how much the “regular voter” understood Trump’s depravity on SNAP.)
So the shutdown may actually have ended at the ideal time–before any real pain started to rebound back on the Dems. The shutdown itself has been forgotten! But the pain of the health care issue lingers on… for Trump and the Republicans.
-Mark
I mostly agree with you. But the notion that Republicans don’t fear Trump anymore? Try telling that to Marjorie Taylor Green. Or Mike Johnson for that matter. I think it’s possible that they could jump the sinking Trump ship by the midterms but probably after any primary threats are passed.
I agree that the healthcare issue will kill the Republicans unless they actually come up with a feasible plan to replace the ACA. That won’t come from the administration which has the attention span of a gnat. Could it come from Congress? I doubt it. Those 5 and 10% red districts could be in play in the midterms.
MarkO
Good point on that timing. Once the primary filing date has passed, we may see a bit less zombie-like behavior from the GOP reps. I am actually surprised now at the “bipartisan” concern over the Hegseth war crimes. (As an aside, isn’t the “buck stops here” leadership being displayed amazing? Wow. See bus, throw uniformed military under.)
Got to wonder about MTG. All hat, no cattle. The instant the going got tough, she bailed. Of course, the resignation takes effect the day after her Congressional pension vests. Swamp not drained!
The midterms are shaping up to be a blue “wave”. But per Amy Walter, there just aren’t enough swing districts anymore to really make a huge difference. Dems may take the House, but by a modest margin. Congress looks like it will ping pong back & forth for the foreseeable future.
MarkM
2 adds/rebuts:
- HC ACA: Not smart enough, (well actually I’m plenty smart–😎), just don’t have the time/desire to follow all the podcasts re inside strategies. Plus I’ve got me bots to distill it for me. Nonetheless I’ll predict Trump will extend Obamacare, thoug he will never say his name. I say this cuz:
a. I keep hearing it.
b. MM’s conclusion below and
c. a general sense that there will be all sorts of real pain—for many sick Americans, if they don’t. Late night: Assuming they can get past the gate keepers, (not a safe assumption), it will be fun to see Rachel M and others play the tape of Trump boasting the demo of Obamacare on day 1 (that goes back to the 2016 campaign and again last November) to Trump now extending it. To be fair he was too busy ending the Ukraine war on day 1.
- Back to the commerce theory on negotiating. Standing firm there. My basis is
A. Wall Street Journal supplied the info—not just some bot in Madison.
B. A low opinion of human beings, when exposed to temptation/greed. MM’s input on Nett’en-yahoo and Hamas still running the show are stronger points. As was his claim of Putin having an endless supply of bodies and oil to not be tempted. But there I disagree, not in terms of attrition being sustainable, rather in that temptation to more wealth will carry the day. If they can reopen the easy spigots, (currently I read they are forced to ship too much), and take the cream off the top of some of Witkoff and Kushner’s proposals, they might bite. Trump is a grandiose schemer who would love to see a Trump Tower in Red Square—he may even pop for an onion cupola. True, Putin will play him like a cheap violin—but Trump has lackeys to limit those losses. All he wants is the headline/photo op.
Bonus: Speaking of onion tops. Here’s a beautiful church with a typical Russian Orthodox fun name: Church of Savior on Spilled Blood, I once visited in St. Pete.
Before one assumes gerrymandering is insurmountable (for the left to scale), don’t forget just how drastically Virginia, NJ and the others swung last month. Kamala, (bless her soul), is no longer the lightning rod for the apoplectic right, the sexist young black men and the passive aggressive white women.
Dave S.
Hello bots,
Is the Empire of Donald the Orange beginning to crumble? Cracks seem to be appearing in MAGA. Not for altruistic reasons; that would border on the absurd for these weasels. MTG is nothing but an opportunist. I heard she was miffed that the big T wouldn’t support her for US senator. If she’s thinking that between the Epstein files (did you see that creepy room on Epstein’s island with the dentist’s chair and wall masks?), the Venezuelan saber-rattling, tariffs and cost-of-living issues, public outrage over ICE, the eradication of the East Wing, and the murder of Venezuelan nationals, it’s a safe part to start distancing herself from him, she may be shrewder than we give her credit for.
As to gerrymandering, I agree with Dave. A Texas higher court blocked their gerrymander scheme—at least for now, Indiana has rejected it, and—I think other states are not buying into it. Trump’s numbers are tanking and the guy looks like he’s on thorazine half the time. Falling asleep during a televised Cabinet meeting?
I’m wary of false hopes, but…. maybe Santa will give us a big present—pick up Donny in his sleigh and dump him somewhere in the Arctic Ocean, hopefully near a sleuth of hungry polar bears.
G
Geoff,
Like you, I would love to see nothing better than for Trump to accidentally slip into the polar bear enclosure at the National Zoo. And there are clearly signs of slippage in the Orange grip— particularly and notably among Republicans.
But the NYT’s numbers guy took pains to throw a bit of cold water on my mental zoo outing.
* Trump’s approval rating is 41%. The average for the last 5 Presidents at this point is 42%.
* Dem guv candidates ran roughly 8 points above their states’ lean in the last Presidential election. On average, this spread is 7 pts.
* This one’s more hopeful. Dem candidates in special elections ran 17 pts better than in the last Presidential election. Typically this is 7 pts.
The overall message is that the laws of political gravity haven’t changed. The Out party usually comes back pretty well in the midterms. What we are seeing is not unusual.
I do think that the disgust and disbelief at Trump is damaging him among independents and non-MAGA Republicans. And he is still generating fervent energy among the Democratic faithful, though they are not happy with their party. The midterms will be as big of a wave as the structural gerrymandered limitations allow. I will be grateful to send that oily Mike Johnson back to Louisiana… to be replaced as Speaker by the Robot, er, Man of the People Hakeem Jeffries!
Unfortunately, voter polarization is going to make flipping the Senate very hard. The Dems could do it in ‘26, but it’s the equivalent drawing to an inside straight. For example, they would probably need to win Alaska.
For George W Bush, the defining failure of his second term was Hurricane Katrina. What will it be for Trump? There are any number of candidates.
Mark M
Greetings
Yes, the Trumpster tank seems to be half full these days, but his administration has set into motion and continues to set an agenda that will be far reaching after he is reading classified docs in the Mar-a-Lago bathroom. I too hope for a mini blue wave in the House next November so that there are at least some breaks on his agenda.
A question we’ve discussed in prior posts: what do the Democrats look like in the future and how do they promote the brand. I’ve always been a little leery of the term socialist as it seems to smell of the dreaded, scary Swedes and other secular governments in Europe, but it certainly worked in NYC. Many of the affordability and abundance ideas put forth by some dems have the outline of socialism. Mark O mentioned Sewer Socialism practiced by the Socialists in Milwaukee in the mid 20th century as a template for government that actually is concerned about and helps the more common folks.(God forbid we ignore the billionaires and tech bros). I like that idea, but we gotta find a way to wrap in apple pie to make palatable to the masses.
John
You’re right, John. “Socialism” definitely gets a bad rap. I wouldn’t promote it as any kind of overarching national philosophy for the Democrats. But the party is the metaphorical “big tent”. So there’s room in the party for far-out lefties like AOC and Zohran, alongside the moderates and corporatists like JB Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer. This is a perfect place to recite the tired old saw from Will Rogers: “ I’m not a member of any organized political party. I’m a Democrat.”
IMHO, a moderate standard bearer as Presidential nominee would be best positioned to take on whoever presides over the MAGA rubble in ‘28. That’s probably going to be Vance, but he will get some competition: Marco Rubio, and possibly Tim Cotton. Those guys are going to try to out-Trump one another. I wonder if Paul Ryan will try to ride in on a white horse to rescue the GOP. He is pretty much untainted by Trump’s peculiar stink of corruption. (And hey! Where have you gone, Scott Walker? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you!)
The most crying need for the Dem party leader is to stand up to “the groups”. Loud liberal activists are WAY over represented in National Dem politics. The NYT published an analysis that just totally eviscerated Joe Biden’s failure to act on immigration. His inaction was in large part motivated by fear of offending narrow constituencies within the Dem coalition. Ironically, Latinos— one of the groups he was afraid of offending if he got tough on immigration— largely deserted him (and then Harris) in ‘24. Why? Because he was too weak on immigration!
Newsom, or Pritzker, or Buddigieg, or whoever it is in ‘28, needs to tell the “groups” where they can shove their annoying activism. Just pitch the economic fastballs over the middle of the plate. Do not get fancy just to please the left-handed transgender tree hugging police defunders!
Mark M
Well put. No risk in tossing all the fringes in the swale. Where they gonna go? Ralph Nader? Bernie?…Maybe Z—who won’t get the nod, won’t even chase it, will run as an Indy…(perish the thought).
Pivot away from all cultural issues, leaving but a sliver of light poking through: “we might look into that but certainly nothing in the short term—the American people have spoken”. Once elected then, do a 180, and start opening up the locker rooms, hormone treatment centers, reinstate Roe, jail Hegseth. Promises were meant to be broken. BTW, re Hegseth: killing survivors in the water puts us on the same sickening level as the gas chamber guys.
I’ve often thought that in terms of the Ukraine deal…no one’s word—in writing or in person—matters. Why not just agree to no NATO, then join a little while later, after Putin has calcified.
If the mid-terms swing blue, Paul Ryan will wait another 4. Got to time the pendulum swing right. If they don’t and there is a fighting chance, he may ride in under the return to normalcy flag—conservative, yes; corrupt, no. A simple, refreshing platform.
-d.
You guys are going total-Ezra Klein on me with all this centrism strategy. Fair enough. That might be the best strategy to win the next election. The big problem for the Democratic Party in the long run is the perceived lack of authenticity. Their leading figures do not come off as authentic to most voters. Buttagieg, Harris, Jeffries, Newsome, Schumer. Almost all the national figures come off as phony, as not having any grounded principles, people who spout all the consultant panel tested words but won’t stand for strong policy changes once the election is over. Doing the bait and switch that Dave mentions (do a 180) is exactly what so many voters believe and expect they will get if they vote Democrat.
Who could project authenticity who is not a Socialist for the 2028 election? Pritzker maybe? He’s got a Chicago gangster vibe that is genuine and truly earned. Nobody else comes to mind at the moment. The military/intelligence service ladies who have had recent electoral success? Maybe.
MarkO
…adding centrist/’”authenticist?” Shapiro for completeness, (Josh, PA Gov…was on K’s short list for Veep), competes with Gavin for the photogenic vote. Bret Stephens likes him.
…btw, if authenticist is Webster’s new word of 2028, I’ll defer the award to MO.
…btw, I finally listened (saw) Bret Stephens (NYT conservative op ed…read him for years…debating Frank Bruni in a video (Teams call) conversation segment recently). Always thought he might be a dick. Now 100% on that. They had another op ed member—Aaron Retica—never heard of him, moderating. OMG, what a head…countenance, eye brows, nose, the jowls!….overall puffiness! So puffy his folds are few. On the right snip he’s (obviously), losing patience with Bret’s spiel, (I was too). I wish he was gov or mayor or something just to see the cartoonists have at his countenance.
New York Times Opinion Video
Dave S.
Authenticity is important. And as they say, if you can fake that, you’re golden.
There is nobody as authentic as Trump. Not only does he ignore the Republican consultants, he ignores the boundaries of civil discourse. Which is a nice way of saying, he spews out whatever he is thinking! He’s rude, disgusting, a buffoon. But authentic!
That explains his appeal. Whether he’s lying his ass off, or not, or insulting a reporter, or accepting a phony peace prize— he is authentic.
The good thing is, none of his potential heirs to the MAGA throne have that authenticity. So Trumpism, that peculiarly corrupt version of right wing phony populism, will die with Trump.
MM
Dave,
One good thing you can say about Bret Stephens is that he’s anti-Trump. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, aina?
I thought he was younger!
Mark M.
The only person on the MAGA right who might embody the authenticity thing is MTG. Sure, she’s crazy, but maybe crazy like a fox. We shall see.
Listened to a Rational Revolution Podcast with Dan Shafer and Mark Becker discussing the upcoming Wisco gubernatorial race. Sounds like Geoff’s favorite gumba up-nort district pol, Congressman Tiff, is the GOP front runner. The boys consensus was that any number of declared Dem candidates should mop the floor with his grubby ass, but we’ll see.
Mark
Tiffany is a pimp. I have hopes for Barnes, but I don’t know, I don’t think an African American Milwaukee candidate won’t play well up north. I hope I’m wrong. There is a growing herd of aimless liberals up there. Maybe they’ll start multiplying.
G