Illustration by Michael DiMilo
Featuring the Fabuous Dadbots: Mark M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., and Geoff Carter
Greetings Dadbots,
With less than two weeks to go, the Presidential candidates are making their closing arguments. By definition, closing arguments are aimed at, first of all, that mythical species, the “undecided” voter. Ye gods, how many of these can there be? But the other target is the voter who is undecided whether or not to vote. It’s not Harris v Trump, it’s Harris -vs- couch, and Trump -vs- couch.
For Trump, the primary arguments seem to be the border and gender reassignment surgery for transgender inmates. There are hints of ‘inflation’ and the economy in there, as well. But I believe that they have downplayed the economy as an issue to their great detriment. It’s the economy, stupid, as any consultant will tell you. I will give the Trump campaign some credit, and assume that the transgender issue is simply a handy shortcut to paint Kamala Harris as a whackjob California lib.
For Harris, the closing arguments are: Trump is unhinged and unfit for office, and then abortion. Her other argument is, Who is going to stand up for voters like you? Middle class prosecutor Kamala, or Trump and his rich friends? I think they need to be making this argument much more loudly.
Note that Harris is not making any argument about the border. She simply doesn’t talk about it. Runs no ads about it. It’s losing territory for her, so her campaign just lets Trump take his whacks and doesn’t attempt to rebut him.
Trump is making a run at the young, male “bro” vote. These guys don’t care much about politics, but Trump amuses them, and they are impressed by the “Fight! Fight!” bravado after the assassin’s bullet missed. Kamala, however, has young WOMEN of all political stripes wrapped up. Young women hate Trump. And they will vote in greater numbers than the bro’s.
So, bots, it’s time for the courageous to make predictions about the 2024 election. Those who boldly predict will be honored in the APHOF (Amateur Punditry Hall of Fame). Those who decline to predict are, in the words of Agent Orange, “suckers and losers”.
Here are my predictions. Please weigh in on the Presidency and the Wisconsin Senate race. No need to go into the obsessive detail that I am about to provide.
1. President: Kamala Harris.
2. Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin
3. How will Harris win the Electoral College? I predict that she takes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. She will also get one electoral vote out of Omaha, Nebraska (NE splits its EC votes). Trump will prevail in North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia. Note: Harris WILL win the popular vote.
4. The Democrats will take the House narrowly, thus saving Mike Johnson from continued frustration at the hands of the Freedom Caucus nutjobs.
5. I am not sure about the Senate. Republicans need a NET gain of 2 seats. They’ll probably hold onto Texas (Ted Cruz, yuk) and Florida (Rick Scott aka Lex Luthor).. They will flip West Virginia (as Joe Manchin retires). They will probably win Montana. But the Democrats have a good chance in Michigan (retiring Dem), Arizona (retiring Sinema), Pennsylvania (incumbent Dem), and Nevada (incumbent Dem). Even if when these predictions all come in, I don’t know where that leaves the Senate. One good thing: Mitch McConnell is stepping down.44
6. Wisconsin Legislature. No prediction here. But it will be interesting to see whether the Democrats can make any headway with their new “fair” maps.
Step right up, political pundits. What say you?
-Mark M
Embedding my bets…in Mark’s last email (italics).
-Dave
1. President: Kamala Harris. Agree. But I am freaking out. Economist just flipped to Trump, (an odds machine thingee), Nate Silver listed 24 reasons for Trump (which I did not think were strong ones..but who am I vs Nate… Betting odds also favor ao. In addition, I thought for a while that polls must be more accurate cuz
a. Stats 101 says bigger sample size = more accuracy and
b. Sample sizes are now ginormous due to texting and other tech.
F! But wait…some tell me if you aren’t on a list you won’t get noticed (polled/texted…) Correlates with my hope that none of the above dour sources understand the inner city/Instagram/youth. Pretty much an atheist but willing to pray for K.
2. Wisconsin Senate: Tammy Baldwin Agree. Holy F! What a dick Hovde is!!! Watched the debate…my first dose. Came an eyelash away from grabbing a sharpie and writing Porn Star on one of his signs down the street. Tammy got riled and I can see why. Being 10ft from his felony like anger/aggression/lies must’ve been tough. He’d play a good cold blooded murder in a B movie. When asked about her “lie” that Hovde never said Farmers were lazy, she blew it. Later she explained it, but it was such a stupid accusation—by the questioners. Technically he said farmers just drive around in their tractors all day and (I forget but something like suck up subsidies) and any one with a brain would agree “Farmers are lazy” is a perfect shorthand for what he said. But she failed to explain it…was rattled. Not a big deal I still think she won the debate. All she had to do was let Hovde be a stalker. Note, unlike ao most wannabes just can’t pull off the blithe, almost warm tone of the master of disaster as he ‘splains all the murderers, rapists, herpes carriers and lepers streaming across the borders about 1M/hr’.
3. How will Harris win the Electoral College? I predict that she takes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. She will also get one electoral vote out of Omaha, Nebraska (NE splits its EC votes). Trump will prevail in North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia. Note: Harris WILL win the popular vote. I think she has Michigan too—Gretch so strong. Not as confident about Arizona—I’ll predict the reds get it due to border fear. Also going to pick Georgia since that inner city Dem machine is now well lubed. (not only did they go for Biden, but they flipped the Senate). No way on NC—too much white money there that votes. I’ll predict she does better in Florida than Biden—despite zero campaigning…(I had hoped they’d use Walz to talk common sense to the retirees in The Villages and Kamala to hit Miami—but they must’ve seen it as a lost cause.
4. The Democrats will take the House narrowly, thus saving Mike Johnson from continued frustration at the hands of the Freedom Caucus nutjobs. Agree
5. I am not sure about the Senate. Not sure ay?…that’s a gutsy prediction. Really hanging it all out there. 😎 I’ll predict the Dems lose the Senate. Republicans need a NET gain of 2 seats. They’ll probably hold onto Texas (Ted Cruz, yuk) and Florida (Rick Scott aka Lex Luthor).. They will flip West Virginia (as Joe Manchin retires). They will probably win Montana. But the Democrats have a good chance in Michigan (retiring Dem), Arizona (retiring Sinema), Pennsylvania (incumbent Dem), and Nevada (incumbent Dem). Even if when these predictions all come in, I don’t know where that leaves the Senate. One good thing: Mitch McConnell is stepping down.44 (44?)
6. Wisconsin Legislature. No prediction here. But it will be interesting to see whether the Democrats can make any headway with their new “fair” maps. Predict the maps are a big plus. So is humble Tony and the big state surplus. Haven’t been following it as far as who and where the turnover is.
By the way, a simple way to even out the EC playing field is have the big one hit CA, or drought, or fire, or no jobs, astronomical home prices and taxes…whatever it takes. If they move out, to various red states out west, we’ll be talking Dem dynasty. One could argue that Nevada is the tell tale—the beauty of Lake Tahoe (and Casinos) have already pulled a bunch of CA libs across the border.
Step right up, political pundits. What say you?
-Dave S.
Interesting migration theory there. There are enuf excess Californians that they can move and flip…. Montana? Idaho? Oregon? Colorado? Nevada? OR and CO are fairly solid blue, EC-wise. So no real help there. And ID and MT are not all that likely to receive massive CA in-migration.Maybe….. more Californians in Texas! They are bound to turn blue at some point, right?
When I think of out-migration from the West, I see Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan as big targets. Plenty of water here, no forest fires, nice summers, no earthquakes. Once AZ becomes unlivable due to summer heat, it’s going to happen.
I’ll add one thought on the betting markets vs polls. Consider that the betting platforms are “downstream” of the polls. The bettors have no independent source of info. They rely on the polls and their gut. So it’s hard to see why we’d take the betting markets seriously.
In Michigan, I am highly concerned about the Arab vote. Plus, Gretchen recently committed a faux pas, apparently mocking the Catholic communion ritual in a joking manner. Still a lotta Catholics there, so it worries me.
Mark M.
Greetings, bots, and welcome to this political fever dream.
I just don’t know. I’m hoping the deluded half of America regains—even temporarily—its senses and rejects the orange plague, but I don’t know. Kris and I have been canvassing and working the phone banks for Kamala and there is some good enthusiasm. We did early voting in downtown Milwaukee yesterday and actually had a great time. I ran into some buddies and made a few new acquaintances and didn’t—by rule of law—talk politics.
But for the big picture, I just don’t know. I want to think—and hope—referencing the big wins for abortion referendums in Kansas and Ohio that pissed-off women might carry the day for us. They still might, but Trump’s success with targeting minority males is a little bit frightening.
In Wisconsin, I think Tammy has this sort of invulnerability. I was amazed when she beat Tommy Thompson back in 2012; she seems to have a good rapport in the rural counties—a lot better than Eric the Dick. “I’m not in the Senate. I don’t know anything about any farm bill. Gawd.”
So, my predictions:
1. Kamala and Tim will win the presidency. I have my fingers crossed on this one, but I do think Trump’s orcs are working false polls and tilting the betting odds. I’m hoping that Trump’s madness will become evident to some of his still coherent followers.
2. Democrats—particularly with redistricting in a few key states—will retake the House.
3. Republicans will take the Senate. Even if Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania hold onto their blue seats, we’ll lose West Virginia and Montana. Even if Allred beats Cruz in Texas, we still couldn’t pull off the miracle.
4. I think the Dems might have a shot at the Wisconsin Assembly and Senate. It’ll be close, but the abortion issue will win out here. And I think people are sick of the Republican Reign of Error. I really hope Bob Donavan, Duey Strobel, and Robin Vos all lose–and go far far away..
The truth is that even if Dems have a resounding victory, the Republicans will attempt to muddy the waters, but I think the Election Commissions, our courts, and the Democratic Party will be able to parry it.
Later gators,
–G
So, cross your fingers and find your favorite gummies and a twelve pack of Hamm’s on November 5th. It’s going to be a long night.
Aye, me bots,
I admit I’ve been remiss in my commentary of late, but allow me to weigh in on this mighty weighty election of November 5, 2024:
President: Here’s my unbiased take: OMFG, the crazy shit that continues to spew from Trump’s nasty cakehole; who, just who, in their right frickin’ minds could support such appalling idiotic nonsense?
Well,I think MarkM nailed it with recognizing the young male bro vote as a Trumpian demographic. There’s also the old male good ol’ boy vote, as well as assorted baskets of deplorables, bags of dumb-shits, boxes of Christian right-wingers, lockers of assorted gun nuts, closets of racists, sock drawers of misogynists, and Elon Musk.
My deep statistical analysis has determined that these, umm, “interest groups” make up 52.7% of potential voters. Analysis also reveals that 48% of potential young male bro voters in swing states will be too wasted on Bud Light to give enough of a shit to vote. This gives Harris enough of an edge to win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and possibly even Michigan. Nevada and Arizona will also probably go to Harris. As Dave and Mark pointed out, the liberal-tinged Cal migration to Nevada and AZ is a bit of a thing, and many Hispanic voters in AZ and NV have got to be pissed off about Trump’s anti-immigrant rants.
So, yeah: President prediction: Kamala Harris (Pleeeease, oh please, Sweet Jesus, pleeeease).
Wisconsin Senator: Tammy Baldwin. WTF, Eric Hovde is such a tool, a Trump wanna-be that gives-off a creepy sex-offender vibe. Yes,Ted Cruz is also creepy like that, but no way Hov-day. Despite Hovde’s huge cash outlay in campaign advertising, Baldwin wins by a comfortable margin.
US Senate: Republican majority
US House: Democrats will regain majority.
Wisconsin Legislature: Republican majority in both houses, but smaller than it was.
Milwaukee County Register of Deeds: Israel Ramon
DC
Thought I’d reply to Dennis’s as I reference a comment he made, but first:
Read a James Carville (dem politico…”rajun cajun”)—have never followed him…was aware of him. Piece in the NYT yesterday, that basically said, “not to worry, the dems have this”. Like other readers, I needed this, been worrying based on various ‘ao is winning’ sources. Later I heard him interviewed on NPR—same topic. I forget his big (3) but one is the clear winning streak. ao lost the popular vote in 2016, the Rs lost seats in 18, 20 and 22, plus the presidency in 20. Thus the writing is on the wall, they are toast. 2nd was the enormous dem $$$ advantage…I forget the 3rd…might’ve been his gut feeling.
Oddly he would not answer a question on NPR, in fact he got testy when the host asked a 2nd time. Like the host I wanted to hear what he had to say. The question was, “If the arguments you are making are such a sure thing, why are the polls what they are?” He’d only say…the polls are fucked. Found that odd for such a hard core, lifelong strategist/prognosticator. In the end I was not as confident had I just read it…Carville is old…like ’80, though he admits it, complained yet bragged about how fast he ran his miles when he was 70… but did not come off as uber confident for K.
These generals coming out with the F bomb (Fascist), Barack everywhere, Liz, Beyonce, Taylor…heck even Mitch McConnel let loose against ao (might’ve been in a book?…he also said he supports ao earlier.Mitch, like many other Rs, want it both ways. All of these things and the rabid early voter turnout has me feeling better. Our library has had lines out the door… I keep checking back… I asked one lady, in jest—she was on the other side of a partition—if I could take ‘cuts’. Got a very stern ‘No!’. At least the folks around her knew I was kidding, got a chuckle out of them.
And I do think there is a grain of truth…maybe a million grains to Dennis’s comment that a significant percentage of bro voters won’t vote. It fits with their profile…no GD gob’ment gonna make me do nuth’in. Unless they run out of Bud Light and the polling station is on the way to the liquor store.
It may be ao senses gloom and doom, explains why his rhetoric is approaching certifiably insane.(Unhinged is now passe.). I do agree with Carville and others advocating aggressive attacks. No high road like Michelle Obama noted as the blue way in 2016. That didn’t work, might as well try something else, fight fire with fire. I’m not a fan of that–it’s a regression, but hey, ao and Rush, and Newt and Pat Buchanon started this race to the bottom.
Oh for those halcyon days of Paul Harvey’s Rest of the Story, brought to us by Wells Lamont.
Dave
Not being qualified (or motivated) to opine about the races all around the country, I’ll only give my observations about my own States of residence (both part-time):
Minnesota: solid blue, meaning our votes don’t count.
Arizona: Harris is in jeopardy here. Immigration is a huge issue here on the border and that’s a winner for Trump. It’s not an issue for just the seniors who migrated here from every cold state, it’s also big with natives, including the huge Hispanic community. It may surprise folks to know that legal Hispanics aren’t fond of undocumented Hispanics. There’s not a great deal of solidarity when our limited safety net is half filled with immigrants. And while certainly many Hispanics are appalled by Trump’s racist characterizations, they also have their prejudices. Established Hispanics (nearly all of Mexican origin) do not identify with Haitians, Venezuelans, or even folks from Chiapas and other southern states.
On the hopeful side, blue turnout should be high. A referendum negating the current (19th century constitutional) ban on abortion will bring out tons. Also, there’s a hot Senate race where the Demo candidate has a nice poll lead over that lunatic Kari Lake. Again, very motivating for Dems to show up.
That’s it from freaking hot Tucson.
MarkO
One more prediction. Rumpled Columbo-type Senator Sherrod Brown will defeat the rich, perfectly coiffed car dealer challenger Bernie Moreno in Ohio. Moreno committed a huge gaffe on abortion, joking that it shouldn’t be an issue for women over 50, seemingly forgetting that they might have female offspring. Brown has hung that on him pretty well. Huge gender gap there— 54 to 38 female/male support for Brown, and virtually identical M/F support for Moreno.
Mark M.
Our beat ‘bot braving the front lines in Tucson has given me cause to pause…finally got several things through my thick skull.
- Been hearing about the Hispanic migration toward red since 2020 and about 86 times the last few weeks. MO’s 87th finally clicked for me. It was/still is surprising to me the lack of solidarity amongst in vs out Hispanics. But I look no further than the mirror and think about my own behavior when asked to buy into the firm I worked at—different scale but same human response. Becoming part of the shareholder club had major amenities but crap this ain’t socialism…we can’t let everybody in—was my unspoken rationalization for settling into box seats for 25 years.
- I finally accept this as fact and understand that both Joe and K’s suddenly tough stance on the border is not solely aimed at SEC good ‘ol boys, but Hispanics. So the dems just need to deal with that—not going to change human nature. And I think they are. And a frequent caveat with many of the 86 news bites was that the majority of Hispanics are still heavily blue, just waning. So, its not good news, but not catastrophic. Hopefully offset by gains in other demographics. Like women with uteruses.
- Another stinger was my failure to appreciate the stink eye Hispanics give to other central, south, Caribbean, etc… immigrants. Ethnocentric (by me) and again by Hispanics.
- A third awakening was MOs mentioning of Chiapas. Had to look it up: Burrito?, Churro? Leathers for riding horses? How petty, how juvenile of Arizona Hispanics to let state (province) lines create enmity. Reminds me of those F’in Illinois Bastards (FIBs), crossing state lines, not paying tolls yet making us pay ‘em, filling up Devil’s Lake Campsite reservations…. Bunch of hedonistic flat landers! Wait…what did I just say?
-D.
We put so much emphasis on the public opinion polls. And why not? We have no other objective evidence to go on.
But the polls themselves, even the very high quality, expensive polls, are an exercise in data manipulation. As you’re probably aware, response rates on phone calls from pollsters are extremely low. Anybody who’s had a cellphone for more than a couple of years knows better than to answer unrecognized numbers. (For me personally, things have just gotten terrible during this Medicare open enrollment period. I get multiple, sometimes 5 or 6, telemarketer calls per day. At least that’s what I’m assuming they are, because I don’t answer them anymore.)
The pollsters reach out to voters online and via text. But there’s a real element of “self selection” in these responses, which flies in the face of the random sample upon which all statistical analysis is based.
The pollsters further weight the respondents by race, age, gender, and other demographic characteristics. It’s all about trying to guess what the actual voting population is going to look like. They also weigh answers by the respondents’ self-reported vote in the prior Presidential election.
All of this is to say, it’s a goddamned miracle that these pollsters get as close to actual results as they do! There’s plenty of wiggle room for any interested observer to simply discount poll results. And that’s before we even take into account the admitted margin of error.
Despite all this potential for error, I can’t help but pay some attention to the polls, especially the trend lines. Harris trended drastically upward after the Dem Convention, but has plateaued over the past month. That narrative makes sense to me.
What’s our other evidence? (1) Yard signs; and (2) Anecdotal.
But yard signs really don’t mean shit. You see Trump signs all over the countryside. Very disheartening. But face it, not that many voters live out where the Trump signs grow. And I’d argue that Harris voters are the “shy” posters of yard sign this time around. So many Trumpers are loud, proud, and obnoxious that the Harris voters are just keeping quiet? How do I know? I don’t! it just feels that way.
Other anecdotal evidence is worthless The fact is, I live in a different universe from the median Trump voter. I have a hard time relating to a person who can convince him or herself that Trump is the best choice. What the hell’s wrong with these people? With that point of view, how many people do I really know who are Trump voters? A few. But not all that many. So my anecdotal evidence is not worth a lot. I have no way of accurately judging if there are more Trumpies or Harris voters.
So, it’s a crap shoot. We’d be better off killing a pigeon and looking at its entrails.
Mark. M
Well, bots, Trump made his closing argument with a hatefest at Madison Square Garden. And Kamala is definitely hitting high F (for “fascist”) in her closing argument.
Driving around listening to AM squawk rado, I’m amazed at the level of cheerleading and overweening self confidence. I want Kamala to win if for no other reason than to hear Mark Belling eat some crow.
Good news: The CES survey (aka the YouGov pool) is a huge poll, almost 80,000 respondents. It shows K up by 4 points nationwide, which is outside their margin of error.
A New York Times article today has Harris campaign staff exuding optimism at her position. So that’s good.
But overall, this is insane. The amount of money spent, not just on the Presidential, but on state Assembly elections, boggles the mind. David Marstellar, hateful and vicious, is locked in a death match with Jessie Rodriguez, that Satan-worshipping slut. And did you realize that Tammy Baldwin is gay and wants transition surgery performed on your child? While Eric Hovde wants to cut Social Security and line his own pockets.
Both sides are able to raise enough money to rain holy hell down on us, the unsuspecting innocents. It’s crazy. Most of these ads are from outside groups who just want to get in and spend.
–Mark M.
Political ads on television are banned in Norway. I think I might (have to) move there.
–G