Illustration by Michael DiMilo
Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Dave S., Mark M., Mark O., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
The “abortion issue” rubber is about to hit the road in Florida.
Their state Supreme Court just made two rulings:
1) Upholding the 6-week limit passed last year by the FL legislature, and signed into law by that store brand Trump,Ron DeSantis.
2) Upholding the constitutional referendum, seeking to legalize abortion in Florida, so that it will appear on the ballot this November, along with the Presidential election.
Savvy anti-choice activists have got to be grimacing at the timing. The 6-week limit, just upheld, is effectively a total ban on abortion. That is going to serve as emotional fodder for the pro-choice side, which will be out in force in the lead up to the election. (60% Yes is required to pass.)
The consensus of this group of pundits was that the Dobbs decision would NOT have electoral legs. Um, that assessment didn’t age well.
We are now looking at a situation where the abortion issue on the Florida ballot could potentially tip Florida into the Democratic column on the Presidential. Wow.
Karl Rove is nodding in sage agreement. Ol’ Turd Blossom engineered anti-gay marriage questions to appear on multiple state ballots when “W” was running for re-election. As Rocky Balboa’s manager would say: “Shrewd.”
MM
If I remember correctly, that FL constitutional amendment entailed a 24 week limit on abortions. Refresh my memory, is that an abortion guarantee or a ban?
Marko
“No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s health care provider. This amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion.”
-Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortions 23-07; Florida Division of Elections.
Viability— approx. 24 weeks.
MM
Thanks for the text of the amendment Mark. Did you add the 24 week addendum or is that included in the text?
If “24 weeks” is not part of the text and courts have latitude in judging what “viability” means, it will be an ongoing shitshow of litigation in FL. But I suppose that is second nature to Floridians by now.
Marko
That was my addendum… So the Florida amendment would essentially reinstate the equally vague Roe v Wade standard. And you saw how that unified us!!!
MM
Your boots on the ground, bot reporting live: (we bought a place in Sarasota, FL…March and April only…). A snip from The Economist that enlightened me re this constitutional amendment discussion. Maybe you already know this but there is no law yet, rather an upcoming referendum for the “people to decide”, (in November). “Enshrine” is perhaps misleading…”enshrine until the next referendum comes along—IMHO. Nonetheless. a good sign and as ya’ll have pointed out will keep the issue front and center.
—The Economist, “An abortion ruling has Democrats hoping Florida is in play”, April 3, 2025
As far as the upcoming shit shows…No doubt. The catchy lead “Florida Woman…” may become trite.
Asides: From my boots on the ground perspective, Florida ain’t gonna flip. Basis for saying that:
- An Economist recent story: “Florida: Where retirees go to escape wokeness.”
- James from Vancouver Island on bike ride yesterday. After intros—I quipped “What a shitty place to live”…. he chuckled but then vented about how the liberals there are ruining it for everyone by allowing the homeless to live in hotels. I refrained from asking what his better idea was? Isn’t it better than most places? I hear Karen Bass is making similar strides in LA….
- Others I ride with are from EVERYWHERE, most plus 60, some plus 70—(amazing how many people can still ride PDF in their 70s.), many are war veterans. One guy explained how the word, incoming, has special (heart pounding) meaning to vets.
- And there is incentive to become a FL citizen: income taxes. Another guy: “I live here 6 months and1 day…plus the cost for plates is cheap!”
- I have a friend down here. She was liberal back in Ogg Hall—both parents were school teachers, she got a PA degree, raised a couple kids down here. Now a DeSantis devotee. Her basis: There were some books in her high school that were pretty graphic about male anal sex—she got them removed. She also applauds DeSantis for howl he handled Covid. ??? Hopefully not, but perhaps a material demographic example…most of us slide to the center simply understanding how the world works…then kids make us more conservative… Sometimes protection of kids, (overprotection IMO), can push people across the line. This friendship will be a good test for me to listen to another point of view. Watch for a report back.
- DeSantis called out the guard to protect The Keys against escaping Haitians….story I heard said there were none. Alas, healthy paranoia is how many look at it.
NPR aside: Nice to have 2 stations—WUSF (Tampa/St. Pete) and WGCU (Ft. Myers/Marco Island…yes tiny Marco Island). USF is University of South Florida, no clue as to what GCU means… Gulf Coast U…?… Both are liberal of course…both have 10x better programming than Madison’s WERN—you may recall I turn to WUWM often. But WUSF spends way too much time on LGBT issues. I’m guessing they have a big population there… I recall that horrific gay club shooting. Overall good programming “Florida Matters” has some great stories:
- Forgotten Parks,
- Sunken ships—a “deep dive” on all facets,
- Some old writer for the Tampa Bay paper, African American, very knowledgeable about Florida housing/homesteads, very liberal—but balanced, he reported some good work that Jeb Bush did regarding rural low income family housing while at the helm.
- Nature bit: Latest was a soft shell turtle…no protection, no teeth—(no turtles do I learned)…but a nasty bite—they do have hard jaw and are swift swimmers/runners….svelte w/out that hard shell “refrigerator on their back”.
Btw: that fridge on back line, (for moi), comes from that old school baseball player (think Ron Santo, Harmon Killebrew…) rounding third hoping to score—say from first on a double. Well, these sluggers weren’t in the best aerobic shape, MLB bases are long, many of them smoked…. and they’d be huffing/puffing/straining as they rounded third—often held up by a wise coach or cut down by Roberto Clemente or similar.
D.
Hey, It’s hard to predict election results from anecdotal evidence. Hell, even the randomly sampled opinion polls are having trouble coming up with a realistic representation of the voting population.
And bear in mind that the pro-choice voting majority actually is, for the most part, a Silent Majority. Suburban moms and senior citizens who care are decidedly NOT on the front lines, chairing themselves to the governor’s mansion.
So despite your discouraging interviews, Dave, I still hold out hope that the Constitutional Amendment can drive the anti-Trump vote this fall.
Another angle on the Trump & Republican desperation can be seen in the financial & organizational disarray of state GOP parties. Michigan and Arizona are both in tatters. And out of money. The Trump Crime Family has done a “bust out” on the RNC, and are routing millions in donations to Trump legal bills. This has not gone unnoticed by the deep pocket GOP donors, who really don’t care to pay for Trump’s legal team. So they are holding back. Trump may be engineering some “reverse coattails” in down ballot races.
That money issue is why Trump is selling Bibles now. It’s a perfectly legit Bible, and it includes copies of the US founding documents, the Pledge of Allegiance, and the lyrics to Lee Greenwood’s “Proud to be an American”. Only $59.99! In Trump’s New Testament, the ending has been revised somewhat. Hordes of Jesus’ followers storm Jerusalem to reverse the results of the Crucifixion. The deranged Herod and Pilate are a disgrace! Probably funded by George “Aurelius” Soros.
MM
I have to agree with MM on this one. I think the overturning of Roe was at least one bridge too far for the GOP. My God, even Kansas voted for abortion rights on a referendum. Kansas!! We’re no longer not in Kansas anymore (pardon my double negative). And Ohio, too, despite the GOP efforts to jimmy the election. This country is pro-choice. Period. And it’s going to be the difference maker. Look at Alabama. They elected a pro-choice Democrat in a special election. We’re in the upside down now–thanks to Donald J.
DeSantis just killed himself, Trump, and the party. A six-week ban is the same as outlawing abortion. Who knows they’re pregnant after six weeks?
I think Florida–or any state that embraces stricter reproductive rights is riding that spiral down the toilet bowl.
Notice Trump has tried to sidestep the issue by referring it back to the states? I don’t think he’s Teflon on this one. I might be wrong…. It’s happened before.
G