Attribution: Photo by Colton Sturgeon on Unsplash
Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Mark M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
Bots,
It is often said (by me) that predictions are hard. Especially when they involve the future.
But today, feeling introspective on this last day of the year, as beautiful snow flurries create a snow globe in my backyard, and after watching a couple of Sunday shows featuring pundit predictions, I am in the mood to issue some forecasts. Bots, I’d like to hear your predictions as well! And, most importantly, the rationale for them.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
1. Trump will win the Republican Party nomination.
2. Biden will win re-election
3. Biden will win Wisconsin..
I just don’t see Nikki or DeSantis consolidating enough support to defeat Trump. He simply is very popular among Republicans, and most voters on that side believe that he is totally electable and can pretty easily beat Biden. His legal problems will cause him difficulty, but none of the trials are happening soon enough to take him down in the primaries.
Biden faces serious headwinds: Perceptions on the economy; Ukraine; Israel v Hamas; and the southern border. The biggest danger to him is the lack of enthusiasm for him. Discouraged by Biden’t pro-Israel stance and the border chaos, younger voters and black voters may simply stay home.
Biden’s greatest weapons, however, are the abortion issue and Trump himself. Trump’s rabid base is not enough to push him to victory in the six states that matter. Trump needs Republican women, and swing voters, and their support for him is going to be soft enough that high anti-Trump turnout will swamp him.
I see that happening in Wisconsin and in each of the swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan).
CONGRESS
The House will swing to the Democrat side. This ongoing chaos on the Republican side is going to hurt them. We probably will have at least one government shutdown, and the Republicans will take the blame.
SENATE
Reading a CNN summary just now, I see that it’s going to be a tough go for Dems. They currently have 50 seats. Kirsten Sinema of Arizona went “independent” but still seems to vote most often with them. So the Dems can only lose a couple of seats to lose their edge in the Senate. And they will for sure lose West Virginia, as Joe Manchin is NOT running for re-election and it’s a super red state now. So the Dems have to hang on in Montana and Ohio, both Republican states, and beat Sinema in AZ. It seems like a real challenge. So I’m going to predict that the GOP takes the Senate.
OK, enough pontificating for now. Your thoughts?
Mark M
Happy New Year bots,
I’m pretty much in agreement with Mark M.’s predictions (barring any health disasters for either aged candidate). I think the House will go Democratic, too, but I’m also optimistic that—if the Democrats play the abortion issue right—we might keep the Senate, too. I’m hoping independents are getting fed up with all the Republican DC shenanigans. Maybe I’m being too much of a naif.
I also predict that when Wisconsin gets its new maps, (probably ones approved by the Court since I can’t see Evers and Vos agreeing on anything), that the State Senate will go democratic, but probably not the Assembly—although I’m thinking the margins will be much narrower. Here again, too, depending on how the Dems play the abortion issue, we could see a big blue tide in Wisconsin.
I also predict more progress in the fight against climate change. There has been a lot more progress this year than I thought. Check this out online….
100 Positive News from 2023 | Gapminder
I don’t know. I’m hopeful but wary. If things go sour, Mussolini Junior could be in power a year from now.
G
Predictions are tough, because if you have any stones in going on record, you have to not just predict what is going to happen (difficult), but also when it is going to happen (really difficult). Because I do not possess such stones, I’m not going there. However, for you ballsier types, here’s some additional info you might want to add to that plank you’re walking out onto…
About 24 Democratic congresspeople have announced their retirement from the House, with only 14 Republicans doing so. Most of the Republicans are in safe red districts. Many of the Democrats are not from safe blue districts, partly because of recent gerrymandering in North Carolina and a couple other states. Court fights over electoral districting could change the battlefield before November, but those outcomes are uncertain at best (you WI residents are no doubt familiar with this variable). So it appears it will take a serious blue wave in November for the Dems to take over the Congress.
Happy 2024 everyone!
MarkO
I have two words in response:
“Biden’s coattails!”
Hahahahahahaha
One more prediction. Tammy Baldwin will stroll easily to re-election. Her opponent is not yet known, but will probably be another flavor-of-the-day wealthy businessman. Not too many of these yahoos have gotten elected in WIsconsin since Herb Kohl managed it.
And here is an interesting bit of timing. The Supreme Court has taken the mifepristone (medication abortion) case. They have agreed to decide whether the FDA’s restrictions will be rolled back to 2016. It was much more restrictive then. (Banning it completely is off the table.).
They are two likely outcomes. 1. Roll back the rules. 2. Reject the case on technical “standing” grounds. Either way, this will be a reminder to voters— in June—of the abortion issue.
Mark M
(Apologies…this is late…my jokes may not function properly)
Re MO’s initial response: Blessed with stones of granite I’ll chisel out some pics.
- Biden will survive—actually thrive in Wisco. Average voter doesn’t want a wild card. Also, don’t believe that poll shit we hear. Prophets at both Fox and the Times soar with drama—neither camp is bashful about being newsworthy. “feed the fire”…the newsroom mantra. In addition, how accurate have polls been lately?
- MO informs…in dour fashion…rains a bit on Geoff’s optimism parade…with some tuff to swallow retirement facts. Nonetheless, I’m with Geoff, abortion is a nightmare for clutzy ‘pubs: Dems hold serve in the Senate and reclaim the House. (and yes to MM’s Tammy prediction…makes me sleep better knowing there are enough people in Wisco to keep her a slam dunk.) BTW, it’s interesting that 2 of Wisco’s longest running senators are/were gay. Herb Kohl being the was since no longer a senator…and he just passed. Also interesting to watch the Mifepristone SCOTUS results. MM is right, all abortion related news is good news for the Dems.
On a seditious level, my mind goes to the various Teflon responses RoJo gave to his role in the fake electorate. Can’t believe he’s not behind bars. Some Schadenfreude in RoJo getting grilled, then skewered, below.
I liken all the cases of folks being given a free pass to a bet in high school, where someone bets too much…say $100….loses, then claims they were joking….never really said that… Everyone knows they did, but the other party lets him/her off the hook, cuz…they know they’re punks…and have been given the same quarter…or will be someday. With these adults it is sedition, a tad more serious. Ron’s defense is “everyone” does this, no different than the Dems in countless other cases….(‘cept he can’t name any…) The old 2 wrongs make a right argument our country is built upon.
Was fact checking self on the number of deaths on 1/6/21: 4-5, the day of (the cop died the next day)….strokes, an accidental overdose. (? Huh…maybe…maybe these rioters got jacked on whatever…). Most surprising bit was the number 4. Four additional deaths, after the event, by Capitol Police involved in it. All by suicide! Wonder why? Failure to country? Cops just have a high suicide rates? Guilt over being in on the insurrection…got a message ‘not to show up’….”check out that domestic out on the beltway”
Attached in case you have any doubts re the veracity of the granite stone bot.
I’ll close by saying Geoff’s other email, Ordinary Killers, made me think just how easy the sheep are moved. No doubt IMO, that the legions of angry F150 owners would do horrific things upon command. So many people shut their ethical sphincters under the rationalization of blind devotion…”I’ll run through a brick wall for that guy”….Oath keepers keep an oath…not sure which one…and it probably varies if things get dicey…but in a moment of rage they’ll keep it. Jan. 6, 2021 made this crystal clear.
Go Pack!
Dave
Predictions? The Pack will beat Dallas 31-27. I know LaFleur doesn’t have a great playoff record, but I think these youngsters don’t know how good they are yet. They may surprise even themselves. I think Wisconsin Democrats will make significant gains in the Assembly, but get a majority in the Senate. Abortion is too big an issue for Vos and his henchmen to overcome.
Will Kaul indict the fake electors and RoJo? Yes. Will Jack Smith indict RoJo—eventually? Yes. Will Mandela Barnes win his senate seat? Nope. He’s from Milwaukee. Will Melania leave Donald? Will Rudy G. go trans? Will Donald, Jr., go into rehab? Inquiring minds want to know.
G
Prediction Update: Pack over San Francisco 31-27.
(The Sad Reality SF 24, Packers 21)