formulanone from Huntsville, United States, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Mark. M., Dave S., Mark O., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
The NY Times had this to say about the Dems primary sequencing change: “In 2008, Biden drew less than 1 percent of the vote in Iowa and dropped out. In 2020, he finished in a humiliating fourth place when he was the presumed front-runner, though he ultimately bounced back.” (The New York Times) Uncle Joe couldn’t be so petty as to hold his personal lack of results against the state of Iowa, could he? You’re never too old to hold a grudge.
Mark O.
Here’s the deal. I won the Democratic nomination because of one state and one state only, those fighting gamecocks of South Carolina. For some reason, there’s a couple of key black ministers down there that I hit if off with back when I was stump’in for ‘same ol, same ol’ Bill and Hilary. Just like Barack they did little for blacks and others on the short end and here we sit with an ever widening, powder keg gap twixt haves and have nots. So, I figured if I moved SC up in the primaries, I can…uhmmm…wait a minute….I don’t have to run against anyone…. Well, whatever, maybe it will help out Pete in 2028.
‘Til otherwise informed, I’m a huge Pete Buttigieg fan. Picked him early in 2020. His “performance/demeanor/strength/political savvy in the above little interview impresses me. These are questions from “friendly fire” which are often the harder ones. Hope he get the crown in 2028 or better yet, 2024.
I liked many of the 2020 Dem candidates. Joe and Kamala were down on my list. Amy K. knows what she is doing and is strong. There was a congresswoman out of NY I liked as well—Kirsten Gillibrand, even Marianne Williamson impressed me (her Wiki history is…well…you decide…I found it “classic hippie-ism”). She made a comment at a debate saying: “We don’t have a health care system; we have a sick care system”. She got some attention as the most googled that night. Only Wyoming did not check her out, if I recall correctly. Not sure it was her original line, but I loved it. Pointed out the obvious that so much of our ills are self-inflicted. Should video games, like a pack of cigs, come with a label: Warning: This game is statistically correlated with early onset of: childhood obesity, opioid addiction and teen age fatalities.” Should so many of our public education funding mechanism preach heathy lifestyle, diet, not necessarily computer skills? My mind drifts back to a gas station in anywhere suburban Atlanta where obese black teens, packed in Lulu tights, waited in line at the cash register (behind thick glass) and everything in front of them was bad for them—tobacco, alcohol and sugar. And everything to their left (pain killing medicine) was even worse for them. And they walked out with plastic bags bulging, like their tights, with pure crap. Talk about glass half empty susceptibility… Noam Chomsky would have a field day pointing out the vicious evils of unregulated marketing. A direct cause to the effect of poor health and exorbitant health care.
Half full: The pack finally had a good game.
-Dave.
Hmmm. I’m not buying what Mayor Pete, Sherrod Brown, Joe Biden, etc… are selling. Not even the Dems Progressive Caucus. All these politicos knew how the votes were eventually going to go down before they put forth their legislative proposals. They knew they wouldn’t get a filibuster proof majority for the sick pay amendment in the Senate, and they voted to force an agreement on the unions anyway. It’s all kabuki theatre, where they can point their fingers across the aisle and say, “see, those are the bad guys”. It’s unfortunate timing for the unions that this all came to a head in December. Nobody wants to be The Grinch Who Stole Christmas.
MarkO
Mayor Pete may have been a bit slippery in that response. But I am with Dave. Pete has first class communication skills. The guy takes on hostile questions as well as those sneaky friendly fire questions, with aplomb. His Achilles heel as a presidential candidate is his total lack of connection with the black community. Addressing that needs to be #1 on his political to-do list.
I can hear Orlowski’s eyeballs rolling from here! I get it, these are self-interested politicians. They are not to be trusted. But that’s what we’ve always had, up to & including Washington, Jefferson, FDR and Lincoln. As Biden says, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative!’”
I also view the Biden SC move with a jaundiced eye. But SC would be better than either lily white NH or Iowa. I like the idea of moving Michigan to be early. As a candidate, you spend some money on the primary and it’s not all wasted for the general.
–Mark M.
Re grudge and pay back time…reminds me of the expression: “don’t hold a grudge…get even!”. Or, in hockey parlance “take down his number and check him in the corner”
As far as a Trumps latest bombast…I continue to have a sneaky feeling that Musk was ahead of many and saw the end game of letting Trump crash and burn, as opposed to playing the victim card. I suspect he, (Musk), is rubbing his hands, chortling…wow… that was easier than I thought. Never forget he is smart, whereas we are…well….glib, we bike and hike (thus “know things”) but maybe 50 IQ points below the man from Pretoria.
Back to the duke of Orange: Another expression comes to mind: “Hoisted by his own petard”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoist_with_his_own_petard
-Dave
Yeah Dave, nice apropos Shakespeare quote re. Trump “hoisted by his own petard”. Makes me feel all lofty just for understanding the reference.
I’m curious to see what sort of twisted logic Trump’s Constitution-or-die followers will use to defend his “suspend the Constitution” post. I remember seeing interviews with several Jan 6 insurrectionists who said they stormed the Capitol to “defend the Constitution”. Of course, those knuckleheads couldn’t tell the difference between the Constitution and the ingredients label on the Hostess cupcakes they had for breakfast. But still, Trump’s fans sure like to brag how they love them some Constatooshun—so how do you guys think this will play out?
–Dennis C.
Trump has done an incredible job of soiling his own brand. I probably don’t have my finger on the pulse of the GOP base as much as I think. But I have to figure that even those junk food addled brains will start to realize that he’s not a winner. (Re the Constitution: the first order of bizness of the House in January will be to read the Constitution aloud. So meaningful!)
Presidential campaign season begins after the new year. There will be a passel of Republican hopefuls. I do not think the fear of a mean tweet from Trump will be enough to dissuade: Nikki Haley; Mike Pompeo; Larry Hogan; Ted Cruz; Mike Pence; and of course Ron DeSantis. But actual primaries don’t begin until ‘24. I think Trump will be super weak at that point. Shit is starting to catch up to him. Hell, his company just got convicted on 17 counts of tax fraud.
Bottom line. Constitution or no Constitution, Trump is done. Stick a fork in him.
There you have it. The Mamerow conventional wisdom. Geoff, be sure to archive this prediction so I can be suitably shamed when Trump is returned in triumph to the White House.
–Mark M.
Iowa? New Hampshire? Pfft. Whatever Biden’s motives are, the Iowa caucuses are so small and convoluted and so unrepresentative of genpop that I can’t think of a good reason for Iowa to continue to be lead-off hitter for the Democratic primaries. Like MM said, it seems like a waste of campaign money that could be better spent on…? Education? Social justice reform? Ah, let’s not get carried away. How about an endless stream of annoying TV commercials in the bigger and more diverse state of South Carolina?
–Dennis C.
Quote from the New York Times about Trump:
“How, in a matter of less than a decade, could this once-proud country have evolved to the point at which there is a serious debate over choosing a presidential candidate who is a lifelong opportunist, a pathological and malignant narcissist, a sociopath, a serial liar, a philanderer, a tax cheat who does not pay his bills, a man who socializes with Holocaust deniers, who has pardoned his criminal allies, who encouraged a violent insurrection, who, behind a wall of bodyguards, is a coward, and who, without remorse, continuously undermines American democracy?”
Echoes my sentiments, but it’s just too early for me to find the words.
PC
Good plucking Paul:
…true all dat but when our nation was hanging by a thread, riots in every major city, (and some pretty decent street art), deeply reverent, he turned to his faith, the foundation which his misogyny…errr…passion stems from and united us all. Not since W. on that carrier have we seen such heroism, such leadership. Now we’ll see if he goes quietly into that cold dark night.
Original: The White House Derivative work: J JMesserly, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
It will be interesting to see who and when others announce. MM gave a good list—though he omitted Paul Ryan and Glenn Youngkin—the Economist informs is: “…6’ -7”…incapable of being less than ebullient—even at 8 am….brings together Never Trumpers and Forever Trumpers….and his upbeat nature—as opposed to DeSantis and Trump—who are doubtless still practicing the Trumpian scowl in the bathroom mirror”. He won Virginia governor race despite Virginia going to Biden by 10 points. Trump already derided him, “sounds like an Asian name”, means he’s worried about big Glenn. Yet, I wonder if the non-DeSantis nominees will bother? Ron De with Nikki Taylor as VP would present a formidable duo.
Here’s the deal: Joe will run because things are trending up, and the D inner circle, will agree, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. There are many other rationales to keep an old guy in there (the cabinet runs the nation…he just needs to stay awake for a few state dinners…the economy runs the country……. All true to some degree, but IMO, the D inner circle believes this is the best chance of winning. Now the NY Times and many others, (‘bots probably), would like to see some progressive thought—Pete! Pete! Pete!—but I think folks are too freaked out that Trump happened… Paul’s plucked list below is so accurate it is absurd. Tartuffian. Thus the big D inner circle won’t touch AOC, Bernie, Amy, Kirsten, angry Liz or my main man Pete, till 2028. Geoff, please note this—you have a heavy responsibility tracking all of us geniuses.
I do wonder about Paul R…or perhaps this Glenn guy. I would like to see him back in the public eye. We desperately need to move forward on issues, and it would be nice to see some gap narrowing, civil debate, compromise, and action. Just winning the senate 51-49, (seeya Herschel), is survival but it is far from a well-oiled machine. What’s so crazy ‘bout peace love and understanding?
-Dave S.
I know with the Trump Organization’s conviction and the subpoenas going out in the DOJ January 6th investigation—along with his dozen or so other litigations—things are looking bleak for Agent Orange. But—I’m leery about counting him out. 74,000,000 citizens voted for him in 2020. Granted, he lost by a significant percent, but those guys are still out there. No one took him seriously in 2015 and counted him out all during the 2016 election because of the grabbing p…. comment and other stupidities. He’s not smart, but he’s shrewd as hell. I wouldn’t be surprised if a third-party run (or the threat of one, which would scare the bejesus out of the Republicans) is out of the question. I think he still is working under the delusion that he’s the smartest guy in the room.
I hope to hell I’m wrong.
Geoff
Man, there’s gotta be a better choice than South Carolina. It is in no way representative of the whole country. I’ll say it is the most conservative state in the union. Texas gets more hype in that regard only because it is many times larger. SC is the anchor of the bible belt and draws all kinds of conservatives from the north (e.g. my younger brother and family) largely because of its conservative reputation. It spawned the Civil War for chrissakes. Strom Thurmond! The Dems will be scrambling all over themselves to position themselves as the most conservative of the bunch. I can’t wait for that shit show. Not.
MarkO
But… we’re talking about the Democratic primary. So presumably only Dem voters will participate. Including black voters. So even though SC is the cradle of the Confederacy, the real nutcases will be excluded.
But I would like to see Michigan as an early state. Better than SC. Reasonably diverse, racially, and including urban, suburban, and rural areas. Big, but not absurdly huge like TX or CA. Also, unlike SC, it’s actually a battleground state in the Electoral College.
With regard to Dave’s most recent. What exactly is this Democrat inner circle you speak of? I don’t think there is some secret group of insiders that makes the “real” decisions. I just don’t see any evidence for that. AOC, for example, is in office because she ousted a long-time sitting Democratic Congressman in a Bronx district—in a Democratic primary challenge. I don’t think the inner sanctum, if it existed, would have approved of that change.
There is definitely a donor class that is kind of an inner circle. They get access and favors, no doubt. And they get to experience an intimacy, which they pay for, at those $10,000 per plate dinners of rubber chicken. The politicians tend to let down their hair a little and provide some “straight talk”. It’s no coincidence that three of the most notable recent gaffes were made at fund raisers. Obama’s “clinging to guns and religion” comment, Hillary’s “basket of deplorables”comment, and Romney‘a dismissal of the 47% who don’t pay Federal income taxes.
I think these donors are overpaying. Except on the GOP side, where donations turn directly into tax cuts!
–Mark M.
Yeah..sorry…Inner circle is one of those terms that would’ve never gotten past an editor in the newsroom. I’m using it to describe the prevailing wisdom/consciousness that influences Biden. Series of e-mails, phone calls, discussions by various senior Dems, political strategists and maybe some key donors (I wasn’t thinking that, but I like the thought.), Media may also play a role…certain highly respected columnists. Correct me if I’m wrong, but with a sitting incumbent, it is solely up to Joe, in this case. If he decides to run, that’s it. Now, there probably are many in all levels of the Dem hierarchy with varying opinions on this but eventually either a consensus group (aka inner circle) or a series of individuals in Joe’s ear, helps him decide. Perhaps there are multiple groups—with different recommendations (run vs not run). But eventually, one wins out in advising Joe—this is the ‘inner circle’ I’m imagining. A better term may have been simply “general, (democratic party), consensus”. I could be wrong, but it seems like human nature to lobby, form an esteemed group, and get in Joe’s ear.
So, inner circle as I use it is more of prevailing wisdom, collective consciousness, providing counsel to Biden. No secret handshake that changes constantly. And, of course, it is just my opinion that the consensus might be to stick with the tall, Catholic, white-haired, white implants/toothed, Caucasian male, especially if covid stays down, the economy keeps recovering and Putin doesn’t pull a Dr. Strangelove.
-D.
I don’t believe you can take a snapshot of a group of people’s skin color and declare that you have diversity of opinion. That’s racial essentialism. That viewpoint got Ol’ Joe in hot water when he declared on-air “If you don’t vote for me, you ain’t black!”. The typical black voter in South Carolina doesn’t look much like a typical black voter in New York or California. South Carolina voters are traditional, conservative, church-going, anti-abortion, tax hating, pull yerself up by the bootstraps types, whether black or white. Really kinda perfect for Biden’s type of politics really. Is there any wonder he loves the Palmetto State? Is there any wonder the inner circle of the Democratic Party loves the Palmetto State? Yes, I do believe there’s an inner circle. Not a Master of Puppets type of circle but one that at critical moments whispers (strongly) in the ears of influential people who want to climb the Party hierarchy.
MO