Tim Evanson from Cleveland Heights, Ohio, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Dave S., Mark M., Mark O., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
Predict-o-Bots,
I have to say, not a bad effort by this team of wizened political observers. To a man, we predicted that Tony Evers would squeak by Tim Michels, and squeak he did. But really, in Wisconsin, a 3-percentage point victory (51-48) equates to a landside! I read somewhere that Donald Trump derisively referred to Rebecca Kleefisch, Tim Michels’ vanquished Republican primary opponent, as “48 percent Becky”. Well, Mr. Trump, your endorsement went to a guy who needed rounding UP to hit that 48% threshold.
Why were we so on the money with the Evers choice? For me, it comes down to familiarity. Wisconsin voters have pulled the handle for Evers in multiple statewide elections, from the DPI Superintendent to the governor’s race. If Evers could beat Walker – and that shocked me– then he could certainly beat this macho, insanely aggressive prick of a CEO. Michels’ he-man shtick is repellent to me. I have to wonder what women think about it! Wisconsin went for the familiar non-threatening Evers charm over Michels’ belligerent swagger. We saw it coming.
We weren’t quite as accurate in the Senate race. Mark, Dave, and Geoff all predicted RoJo’s victory. Dave was a bit off on the magnitude – the margin was only about 1%. Dennis, meanwhile, chose Barnes, and I’d interpret his humor to be a prediction of a big black voter turnout for Mandela. Ironically, it looks as if a shortfall of about 40,000 voters in Milwaukee County was a big part of Barnes’ downfall (he lost by about 27,000). Without precinct level data, it’s hard to say, but I’m guessing that Milwaukee’s central city did NOT turn out that well. If those missing voters were indeed black, then I’d assume at least a 3-to-1 lean toward Barnes – and it would have been enough to put him over the top. (And by the way, these missing 40k voters in bright blue Milwaukee County make Evers’ victory all that much more impressive.)
As a group, we predicted a GOP takeover of the House, and that looks to be in the works. But the number of seats they pick up will be well below the 25 that I predicted (and 25 is low by historical standards). You other bots also predicted a non-landslide. You wuz right!
We all predicted that Dems would keep the Senate. The jury is still out on that. Arizona (Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters), Nevada (Mastro vs Laxalt), and Georgia (Warnock vs Walker) are still up in the air. The Georgia runoff, which takes place in December, will once again be the center of the political universe. Depending upon AZ and NV results, control of the Senate may be at stake.
So, the red wave, indeed the red tsunami predicted by Ted Cruz, washes ashore like the backwash from a Saturday night booze cruise. How could it be that an election which was going to hinge on INFLATION and CRIME and THE BORDER and CRAZY LIBERAL WOKEISM wound up as, at best, a mild rebuke to Joe Biden?
It’s not hard to figure out. Voters have become extremely wary of Republican extremism (and I think that wariness informed our predictions.) The Dobbs abortion decision became the central signifier for all manner of unpopular, radical, in-your-face Republican behavior. These guys are crazy and fairly harmless, thought the voters, until they start taking away fundamental rights to cater to the Christians. And, while Dobbs loomed, the head crazy – Trump himself– started inserting himself back into the mix, preening at rallies and generally generating the type of toxic chaos he’s come to be known for. A great reminder to voters why the Trump years were so continually, earsplittingly painful. And that was enough. Democrats may be crazy woke, but they’re not crazy, cruel, macho narcissists.
The suburbs are deserting the Republicans because of Trump. It seems that after losing the Presidency (twice, really), the 2018 midterms, the Senate, and now another midterm, the GOP would wake up and boot this loser. But elites over there don’t have the spine to take on the base or the head bully. So, things are really starting to look up for the 2024 Presidential campaign for the Dems, even if old man Biden hobbles, er, runs for a second term. Barring a major economic downturn, I see no reason to believe that Trump could put together a successful campaign.
What’s that you say? A triumphal Ron DeSantis will take Trump’s place and lead the GOP once again to crush those baby-killin’, America-hatin’ Democrats? Maybe so. But John Lovett of the Pod Save America podcast made an interesting point this week. DeSantis will have to get by Trump, one way or another. He either has to somehow convince Trump not to run (highly unlikely), or he has to defeat Trump. And keep in mind that, if he does beat Trump, that creates an existential threat to the Trump ego. Trump’s only response, to keep his own head from exploding would be to stop at nothing to bring DeSantis to defeat. He would backbite and undermine because his own warped sanity would depend upon DeSantis losing. DeSantis is a big jerk, but a cagey, self-interested jerk. He’s risen high in GOP circles, and he’s not all that old. He will choose to wait out the decline of Trump. The big battle in 2028 will be between DeSantis and another pol who’s biding his time – Paul Ryan.
-Mark M
Dear Mr. MM, could you please elaborate on your claim that the Donald has cost the Repubs “the Presidency (twice really)”? I don’t follow this stuff that closely, but I only recall him being one-for-two in the Presidential sweepstakes. This would be enlightening to me. HX.
MarkO
He lost the popular vote in 2026 by 2.8 million votes and was elected by the Electoral College only because of something like 40,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Similarly for Biden! He trounced Trump by 7 million popular votes, yet won the Electoral College due to something like 70,000 votes in WI, PA, AZ, MI, and GA.
Despite my absurdist hair splitting over popular vs electoral results, I’ll stand by the overall assertion. The guy is supremely popular with the Republican base, and that base only.He and his belligerent, fascistic, white Christian nationalist approach are losers among the overall populace of voters. He is turning into an albatross around the neck of Republican hopes for the Presidency and the Senate.
-MM
Good takes, one clarification and a few other bits of me own:
- RoJo: Dennis was far closer than I. Recall I predicted double digit Mandela misery.Though a small smile, the close outcome is not even close to being a silver lining. We are stuck with the small-minded racist hypocrite for 6 f’ing years. This is depressing but not to the point of moving to Canada for government assisted suicide. (Do they really do that? Or was that just witty Gail and Bret making a funny?)
- Most amazing result to me was Fetterman over Oz. Suddenly I hold Pennsylvanians in higher regard then Badgers.
- And Wolverines even more so! Did you see how they went all blue! Show some solidarity behind Gretchen—which runs counter to a central theory held by this highly regarded bots panel. Recall the theory being Joe footballer isn’t mature enough to elect Hillary, Rebecca, Stacey Abrams, Amy K., Elizabeth—“I wanna see the Manager!—Warren. Yet there are those Michiganders standing tall with Gretchen despite her insistence on taking away individuals rights to get other people sick. And just to cement my shock of the Hail to the Victors state, I’ve heard politico experts mansplain the transformation of Detroit—once a pillar of Union pride, there has been an evacuation of the downtown, and migration up to 8 mile road, 9, 10,….12, 14, ….it keeps going per the plat. And up there it is much more like Milwaukee WOW counties. Yet, despite that, they vote blue! Now, to be fair—and optimistic, Detroit has had a bit of downtown revitalization—beyond the Casinos…Wayne State is bright star and there are others—even Ford, recognizing that gen whatever prefers downtown to Dearborn. Plus Aaron Rodgers now officially sucks. Go Lions!
- I’m told Doug LaFollete’s Sec. of State staff totals 2, counting himself. But his 40 some year run there was important in terms of defense of voting machines? Not sure I got that completely right—but another pseudo bright spot in Badgerland.
- I saw a news clip of some middle level guy, maybe in Ohio or PA, going off about crime and funding the police, got emotional recounting the crime, a 4 y. old caught in some massive crossfire and he kept harping on the over 50 bullets. Honestly are these guys and gals that stupid? Just like RoJo. Police are important—don’t be naïve, don’t overreact to the Floyd thing the bigger problem is right there in front of you—and the answer. You said it yourself…”all the bullets”. Police aren’t going to stop the bullets from flying—they are more like auditors who come in after the battle is fought and kill the wounded. Gun control, education, planned parenting, housing. These are the big 4 of our times.
- Just a theory worth repeating: I heard the black male voter doesn’t drink the blue Kool-Aid. Been left back too many times. Barack was/is a bro, but did he anything substantive on gun control, planned parenting, low income housing, low income education, incarceration. True all that stuff is hard, but I’d argue it is far, far larger way for government to make an impact than climate change.
- I guess Kari Lake still has a chance in ‘zona..??? So far I’m delighted, as in PA
- Bummed about GA and Stacey Abrams. Why is GA not electing Stacy and supporting Herschel the commercial? See items 3 and 4 above.
- Prediction: This scene was bad enough to push Trump out the door and bring in some fresh new right-minded blood, who isn’t alienating to the center crowd. Thus hello Ron, good bye Donald.
- Also, I don’t agree that Trump will turncoat once he sees DeSantis is the chosen one. Rather, he’ll take credit for it then just drift away. I did predict a possible DeSantis-Trump or vice versa ticket, but am backing off on that now…even a Hummer Limousine couldn’t fit both.
- Last: Here’s the deal: Inflation is showing signs of retreat….and most systems tend to a state of equilibrium—even human ones…we’ll see. If covid stays tame, I think those two things are all the Dems need to hold serve in 2024. Joe doesn’t bug me as much as he bugs others. There is something plaintively reasonable in his speeches, his beckoning. His “C’mons”.
-D.
Mark M
C’mon maaaan… Saying someone lost the presidential election because he lost the popular vote is like a losing basketball team claiming they actually won because their opponents numerous 3-pointers should have only counted as 2 points, because that’s how God intended basketball to be scored. God doesn’t set the contest rules, people do. Both parties accepted the Electoral College rules before the campaigns started and based their campaign strategies based on those rules. I don’t like the Electoral College rules but there they are and someone is going to win and someone will lose by them. Just cause your team sucked at shooting threes on a given night doesn’t mean you can claim victory by saying the three-point line is bullshit and shouldn’t count.
I hate everything Trump stands for and it was cool to see his negative impact on Republican midterm results. If he continues to drag that party down for for a couple more election cycles, I’m all for it. I would like to see him continue as the face of the Republican Party because it just gets worse after that, with the likes of Ron DeSantis and Kari Lake. Good grief.
MarkO
MO has pulled me back down to Earth. The popular vote is a mere mirage compared to the Solomonic justice of the Electoral College! Though chastened, I cannot help but rub my hands together in glee at the prospect of Trump announcing for President, as he has been teasing, next Tuesday Nov. 15th. This has multiple implications:
1. It will effectively put Trump on the ballot of the Georgia Senate runoff. As conservative fanboy Jesse Watters complained on Fox News: Liberal voters will “walk across hot coals to vote against Trump.”
2. It effectively puts every Republican office holder on the spot, They will be expected to take a stand either supporting or opposing Trump. Those who oppose or waffle will be mercilessly attacked by Trump in speeches, interviews, and on his Truth platform (has anything ever been so fraudulently branded? Oh yeah, Trump University).
(Speaking of social media, now that Elon Musk has dismembered whatever content moderation was in effect at Twitter, when are they going to reinstate Trump? I long for the days when every dyspeptic Trump belch on Twitter set off waves of reaction in the mainstream media. We definitely need MORE Trump out there. Let’s get the American voter thoroughly sick of this clown.)
3. Trump looming over the Republican Party will make the GOP’s next session in the House even more chaotic than it would have been. Let the intra-Republican battles between “normies” and the Freedom Caucus begin. Let’s watch Kevin McCarthy wriggle like a worm on a hook. Hey, there’s nothing like a circular firing squad.
4. Trump’s declaration is an attempt to not only regain his influence, but to freeze the field of potential GOP Presidential contenders. It will succeed in freezing out all, except quite possibly Ron DeSantis. I am already popping the popcorn for that particular movie.
-MM
Hello bots,
Even though Barnes lost to that miscreant Ron Johnson and Herschel Walker is still somehow in the running to be a US senator, I was heartened by these midterms. First of all, nationwide—at this moment, at least, many of the more rabid MAGA candidates and election deniers have been defeated. Adrian Fontes beat election denier Mark Finchem for Arizona Secretary of State and Republican gubernatorial candidate and Trump clone Cari Lake was defeated by Katie Hobbs. And—for the frosting on the cake—Lauren Boebert is hanging on to her House seat in Colorado by the skin of her pointed canines.
Apparently, democracy was on the ballot. That and abortion rights. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the MAGA platform and Trump’s influence seems to be on the decline, and the ex-president, true to form, is attacking everyone in sight for the defeats of his hand-picked candidates. He lashed out at his wife for—allegedly—choosing Mehmet Oz. We know he’s going to anyone and everyone but himself, but the upshot is that Republicans are beginning to distance themselves from Trump—not that that will do them any good. I’m sure that the ex-president will be instituting a scorched-earth policy for the GOP. He’ll try to pillory DeSantis or anyone else who tries to run for president. That should be good for Democrats. Should be. Those burros have a tendency to keep shooting themselves in the foot. A group of Republican senators, including RoJo, Hawley, and Cruz, seem to be angling to dethrone McConnell. Interesting. Are they trying to preserve MAGA?
Anyway, it’s nice to bask in the glow of victory for once. Keep your fingers crossed for the demise of Lake and Boebert—and possible Democratic control of the House.
G
Wow. Nice job, bots. Pretty good on the predictions and even better on the related pithy observations and punditry.
Yeah. yeah. My man Mandela was soooo, so close… A heartbreaker. And now various Dem factions are replaying the game footage, Monday morning quarterbacking, and pointing fingers at each other.
Among the complaints: If only the Democrats’ PACs would have spent more money running negative ads about Johnson rather than blowing their wad during the primaries on the risky and somewhat shady tactic of backing the easiest to defeat wack jobs among the Republican candidates. To which the PACS counter: If only Barnes would have more visibly and vehemently denied the Republicans’ persistent messaging that he loves criminals and hates the police. And, of course: If only Curley would have put out a few more of those ‘Ron Johnson — Too White for Wisconsin’ flyers. A few more votes from young people in Milwaukee’s inner city could have made all the difference. Really. It could have. If only… sigh.
Well, I still contend that RoJo is too white for Wisconsin. I think he’s even more white than Mike Pence—and Mike Pence’s whiteness borders on translucence. (That’s why he showers with his clothes on. It’s not Christian modesty as some suggest; it’s that he freaks out when he sees his internal organs through his translucent skin.) But even Mike Pence might feel a slight twinge of discomfort hobnobbing at the Whites-Only country clubs where Ron Johnson feels so safe and so right at home, comfortably ensconced in a sanctuary where his vision of the proper and natural order is still upheld. Wisconsin may harbor some red-neck tendencies, but it’s not Ron Johnson white.
Anyway, speaking of Mike Pence, here is another prediction. Mike Pence could be a serious contender for the 2024 Republican convention. emerging as a “conservative voice of reason” and “the hero of January 6” amidst the self-destructive drama of the Donald show and the agro antics of DeSantis.
What say you?
Dennis
Is that real, that bit about Pence showering with his clothes on? If true, that is so creepy. And people think the hibab thing in Iran is crazy. BTW, don’t hold your breath over the Iranian regime teetering on the edge. These “massive” protests we hear about are mainly on college campuses and in Kurdish dominated areas. Not that those demographics don’t have legitimate complaints, but it isn’t the popular uprising that we’re supposed to believe it is.
The AZ governor race is supposed to be called tonight (finally) and will probably go to Ms. Hobbs. Kari Lake will raise holy hell about it. I’m pretty excited to see the fireworks. I’m in AZ now so I may get to see some craziness first hand. I was here late in 2020 when I personally stumbled upon a Stop The Steal rally. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing and hearing. Turned out not to be an aberration…
The unreasonably long period it takes to count the votes here and in Nevada (and some other places) will fuel the fires of many conspiracy theories among the losers. I sympathize. It shouldn’t take a week or longer. The irony is that the long process is often the result of procedural changes intended to weed out voter fraud in those jurisdictions. Voter fraud that didn’t exist and was a conspiracy theory invention of its own! Well actually, mostly a shameless voter suppression scheme. But I like to think of it as non-existent voter fraud spawning non-existent election fraud. Gotta laugh (until someone gets hurt or killed of course).
Cheers from sunny Tucson,
MarkO
Speaking of Mz Kari…. I’m here to provide a few comedic relief YouTube recs: Dave Chappelle’s SNL 14 minute stand up—link to it below. He goes after Kanye and Kyrie and Herschel a bit—but also turned the finger back at “The Jews” and all of us….NPR panned it— but I liked it, caught me up on why he’s so popular. I’ve never seen him prior….(I know…I know….living under a rock…). The YouTube should autofill with more SNL if you are serious about killing time–there is a cast member that effects that evil polish of the mistake named Lake so spot on and a skit spoofing the ‘black element’ of HBO’s Dragon series—follow up to Game of Thrones—which I’ve never seen—but it looks like it deserves a rip job and this is a good start.
But maybe you gents saw it “live from NY…” Stay up “late”.
https://www.npr.org/2022/11/13/1136343690/dave-chappelle-saturday-night-live-antisemitism
Mark. O: I beseech you: Go easy on those sunny Tucson references for a bit. We are at entering the dark season of Mordor up here.
–Dave S.
MO,
Amen brother on the vote counting “controversy”. Ginned up by the Right and exploited. They are “just asking questions”! Here in Wisconsin, municipalities aren’t allowed to count mailed-in and in-person early votes UNTIL Election Day. Makes no sense unless you want to call the results into doubt.
In Nevada, the drawn-out process is a direct result of the RULES:
“Nevada’s rules around mail-in voting, and voters’ embrace of the method, contribute to the delay in race calls. While ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, they can be counted if they arrive as late as Saturday, Nov. 12. And if a voter’s signature on their mail-in ballot does not match their signature on file, the voter has until Monday, Nov. 14, to fix the discrepancy. ” (NY Times, 11/10/22)
Dennis,
It will be interesting to see whether Pence can gain any traction. Can Republicans go from “Hang Mike Pence” to “Vote for Mike Pence”? Listen, any discussion of Pence must include a recollection of him fawning over Trump at the Cabinet meeting in Trump’s first few months in office. Pence and Preibus really went overboard. Here is a 1:47 excerpt of that ass-kissathon:
Pence is out and out creepy.
There’s a structural issue in the Republican Presidential primaries that will be difficult to overcome for any Trump opponent, including Pence. Most of these primaries are winner take all. So if Trump captures a weak plurality (say, 35%) of the primary vote in a state, and multiple opponents split the remaining 65%, he gets all of the delegates for that state. That was a big part of his success in 2016.
Dave,
I’ll check out that monologue soon. Congrats on Gina’s success on the WORLD stage!
-MM
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