Terri Sewell , Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Featuring the Fabulous Dadbots: Dave S., Mark M., Mark O., Dennis C., Paul C., and Geoff Carter
Bots,
It’s time to revisit and refine our thoughts on the impact of the Dobbs decision (overturning Roe v Wade) and the impending November elections. When Dobbs was leaked in spring, I predicted that there’d be little impact on the midterms. Then, when the decision was officially released in June, there was a sizable uproar against it. There was a lot of enthusiasm and anger on the Democratic side, and the Dems’ slide in public opinion polls seemed to be halting. However, with the election approaching in just over 2 weeks, a series of poll releases seem to indicate a reversion to the mean, with Republicans again gaining the ascendancy that’s common for the “out” party in midterm elections.
The economy—and inflation in particular—appear to be weighing heavily on the voters’ minds. It’s really kind of sad that so many people will cast a vote based solely on the price of gas. I get that it’s important, but is it the only issue? As H.L Mencken stated: “No one in this world…has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
And Mel Brooks got it even more succinctly in Blazing Saddles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHJbSvidohg.
Note – I would never share these arrogant and condescending attitudes! Voters’ motives, especially in the land of cheese, are pure as the driven snow. We vote our conscience! Not like those corrupt FIDS across the border.
The fact is, inflation and gas prices have a salience that no cultural issue, including abortion, can ever match. After all, inflation affects 100% of the people. Abortion rights, on the other hand, are kind of irrelevant for at least half the population (the XYs). I mean, I care about abortion rights, and I’m concerned about the impact of the law upon my daughters and granddaughters, but it just doesn’t hit me in the same way.
Despite the downbeat polls that are causing Dems everywhere to wet their pants, there are some positive signs. The Democrats may be saved by turnout. For one thing, Trump is not on the ballot, so thousands of Trump supporters with no interest in government affairs will remain in their hidey holes. These people don’t know the branches of government, much less the identity of their Congressional representative. And on the other side of the ledger, there have been some signs of increased voter registration among voters under 35. This is a very pro-choice cohort. And if they vote, they’ll boost the Dems Unfortunately, young voters have punched below their weight forever, and will probably continue to do so.
One thing is certain. You can’t believe the polls. They have not solved their problem of undercounting Trump voters. And they have such a problem getting responses that they cannot put together a truly random sample. So, a lot of poll results are modeled—a pollster talks to 20 African American and 40 Hispanic voters, but believes those cohorts are underrepresented. So, the poll results boost the impact of that part of the sample. It all becomes a question of how accurately the polling firm models the voting population—not the actual responses that they get.
I’ve backed myself into a corner and must make a prediction. I’ll predict a swing of about 25 House seats to the GOP. This is right in line with the typical performance in midterms by the non-Presidential party. But I think that the Republicans have put up such a poor set of Senatorial jokers, that the Dems will hold or even increase their narrow majority in the Senate.
What about Ron Johnson? Unfortunately, I think he’ll prevail. Mandela Barnes is — gasp—an African-American, and I don’t think the righteous whiteous burghers of Wisconsin can stomach that. And Tony Evers? I do think that he’ll squeak it out against Michels. People have been pulling the handle statewide for Evers for years, and many voters don’t want to deal with the cognitive dissonance of changing their support.
Your thoughts on these weighty matters? I realize that predictions are difficult, especially when they involve the future. And I can state unequivocally that I am almost never right. So…. What say you?
– Mark M
Alright, no more procrastination on prognostication, the election is almost upon us, my fellow bots. Here are my predictions:
Wisconsin Governor: Tony Evers, the pencil-necked geek, shall prevail, no longer getting kitty litter kicked in his face by the fat cat, Tim Michels. Why? I think Wisconsin voters will give truth to the flyers that reappear like magic in my mailbox every freakin’ day, “Tim Michels—Too Extreme for Wisconsin”.
US Senate—Wisconsin: Despite lagging in the polls, Mandela Barnes will squeak past Ron Johnson. Why? Like Mark said, pro-choice voters, especially women voters seem energized to do battle against the Dobbs decision. Black and younger voters will also be energized, perhaps more than the state’s redneck population, because they get the flyers I put in their mailboxes every freakin’ day: “Ron Johnson—Too White for Wisconsin”.
US Senate majority party: Yeah, that’s a toss-up, but I think the Dems might pull off a slight majority. Biden’s doing a little better in the polls (because gas prices dropped a bit?), so that might give the Dems an edge in the close races. I predict Republicans Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker and that Masters guy from Arizona will lose.
US House majority party: Looks like the GOP will prevail in the House, but they won’t win the shit ton of new seats that many are predicting.
Yeah Mark, it is weird how much weight voters place on gasoline prices. It’s like THE issue. If some nefarious cabal actually controlled gas prices, they could totally control who gets elected. “Expensive gas = Bad President”—I hear versions of this so often, even from people I consider reasonably well-informed.
Dennis
Okay, I like batting in the 3 hole, couple ducks on the pond to bring home:
First let me state my precision is based on shrewd understanding of the mind of the moron, (that’s Gene Wilder’s term for those that didn’t click on MM’s Blazing Saddles link…Hilary used basket of deplorables, but I think she was referring to Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, the gun waving polo shirted couple in St. Louis…though H didn’t know it at the time). But seriously, I think we are all guessing how “that Brown County guy, that uncle, or sibling, or co-worker, or whatever conservative contact we know, thinks. And, of course, projecting that is full of error margin. Okay, count is 3-2, I can only foul off so many, so here goes:
- Johnson crushes Barnes. Double digits. The flyer carpet bombings elevate the fear about crime, add to that racism and inflation…and we got a small minded, ethno-centric bureaucrat for another 6 years. This one depresses me the most. The Senate is by definition gerrymandered—Wyoming is equal to California despite being outnumbered 42M to 600k. Not to mention infinitely more represented than Puerto Rico, outnumbered there 3M to 600k.
2. Evers sneaks by that little bit of unshaven hair on the right side of his neck that old guys like us miss so often. Hope is based on (3) theories:
- a. Dennis’ chimerical prediction re Barnes that energized city voters will turn out. This was Trump’s Waterloo in Philly, Milwaukee, Vegas, Tempe, Detroit, Atlanta…. That and of course blatant cheating. J.
- b. “That uncle, neighbor, Brown county….guy is wise enough to understand that inflation is not a Democratic driven problem—‘whole lotta shit going on out there’ (Putin, covid, supply chains…ok maybe I should stop at covid, but some run business and understand that everything is f’d up out there and only slowly settling down. UK has problems, this is not a democratic issue.
- c More significantly—I hope, I may even pray—been a while—is the women getting out to vote. There was a report, immediately suppressed, repressed, when Dobbs occurred that Trump stated it would cost the GOP dearly in November. He’s savvy enough to know this. I wanted to say to him, well you should’ve thought about that before making your SCOTUS picks! So, some material hope there. Relative to 2020, ideally we’ll have the same energized urban turnout, plus a thunderous female turnout—including a few crossovers. Perhaps Rebecca Kleefisch?…..ahh………………….no.
- US Senate: Similar theories based on the above. Dems hold serve but fingers and toes are all crossed.
- House: Not smart enough on that one…but there too I’m more hopeful than both our #1 and #2 hitters. Would love to see Dobbs do in the GOP. Was Kansas a telltale?
- On the national Governor front.
- Stacy Abrams should take GA. I will be quite bummed if she loses. She is super impressive.
- This Kari Lake in Arizona is a polished version of Marjorie Taylor Green and Lauren Bogart—praying she loses. She appears to be evil and smart.
- I think DeSantis is running ahead—how delightful would it be to see the women and Miami city folk rise up and bust his ass.
On that note: You heard it here first: The only question for ‘pubs in 2024 is: Is the ticket Trump-DeSantis or DeSantis-Trump? I can see the flyers now, business end of an over/under double barrel shotgun with Trump, (mug or name), inside one circle (i.e. barrel end) and DeSantis in the other. In fact, it has the scary aspect of ushering in a 12-year GOP reign—the reason why DeSantis would agree to 2nd fiddle in 2024. And when that’s over Josh Hawley may have enough gray on his sideburns.
Vote early, vote often…(wait I guess that joke is not pc right now),
Dave.
My wife, Lynn, is an Arizona resident and is witnessing the gubernatorial race there firsthand. She filled me in on a couple things. Kari Lake is super photogenic and articulate in front of a camera (her real job was as a local Fox affiliate news anchor). She’s a 2020 election denier and spouts all the most extreme right-wing talking points. And she’s very convincing on her conspiracy theories on TV. Her Democratic opponent has refused to debate her, period. She is taking flack for that decision, but it was probably a no-win situation for her. Debating a very talented and experienced TV celebrity, who does not respect facts, sounds like a losing proposition.
I grew up watching television, but I am increasingly convinced it is inherently evil and should be banned. The world would be a better place…
MarkO
MO mentions Kari Lake, running for governor in AZ. She is so damned polished, and speaks with such certitude, in a silky, slightly smoky, dare I say sexy voice. She could sell ice blocks to Eskimos, as the dad cohort might say. Her opponent is the female version of Tony Evers. Basically a charisma black hole.
But why should we care who is governor of Arizona? It’s not all that relevant to us, EXCEPT that governors have a lot of power over the Presidential electoral process. Recall that Biden won Arizona narrowly, and that it was absolutely key to his Electoral College victory. Lake will probably be governor, and we can expect more than just an “election audit” gumming up the works.
Regarding the House race. Dems were hugely disappointed by their poor Congressional results in 2020. Biden had negative coattails. In ‘20, the Dems wound up giving back many of the swing seats they had won in the 2018 midterm backlash to Trump. So, it’s likely that, given those losses, the volume of remaining legit “swing” districts is fairly low. This is why I predict that the Dems will lose more modestly this time around. Not as much is at stake.
Peripherally related anecdote. My 2022 mail-in ballot was rejected by the City of Oak Creek election office. Why? Because the witness (my wife Jean) failed to include the ZIP code in her address. Interestingly, the state Democratic Party was all over it. They notified me by phone—twice—and advised me how to cure the ballot. Good work on their part— after all, this was an actual vote! And I am fairly sure that I am classified as a donkey in their files, so they knew it was a vote in their favor. The city did send it back to me for correction. What a joke. How does the WITNESS’s address have ANY bearing on the validity of my ballot? It just shows how the election staffs are running scared, dotting every I and crossing every T, fearful of Republican attacks on the legitimacy of the process.
Mark M.
Hey bots,
Sorry I’m late to the game—it’s been a busy week. My prognostications are that Evers will hang on for the governorship in Wisconsin and that Johnson will unfortunately edge out Barnes. I don’t think Abrams will beat Kemp or that Crist can beat DeSantis. I also don’t think O’Rourke can beat Abbott in Texas.
This is pretty much along the lines of polling—which I hope to God is wrong—but I do agree that I’m not sure if Barnes be an African American will play well up in the Northwoods. Again, I hope I’m wrong.
Wisconsin is weird. Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson here pretty handily a few years ago, yet she’s a liberal gay politician. And while she’s a little short on charisma (in my humble opinion), people love her, so maybe—with that same sort of offbeat voter sensibility—if it would apply) Mandela might prevail.
My other hope for a blue wave is backlash from Dobbs. Looking back at the Kansas referendum in which abortion rights were upheld by an unexpectedly huge majority, and in Alaska, where Sarah Palin was beaten by a Dem, I hope that this pro-choice anger is still alive and will show up on November 8th.
I’m hoping RoJo and Michels will be hitting the road on the 9th, but I don’t know. Their ad blitzes on crime and inflation seem to be turning the tables. Isn’t it ironic that the latest horrific crime, the attack on Paul Pelosi, was instigated by a QAnon fueled extremist Republican rhetoric? Hmm… reminds me of Kyle Rittenhouse. That is having your cake and eating it, too.
Geoff
The thing that gets me is that the Dems are actually doing something to address many of the issues people are worried about. Inflation would be eased by the health care funding and drug cost controls contained in recent regulation. The war in Ukraine is driving inflation, putting the Russians in their place will stabilize the world economy, even more importantly, our government is doing a good job of helping a democratic society survive.
The deficit will be reduced by the minimum corporate tax that was also recently passed. Social security and Medicare are being defended, and student debt is being addressed.
And what do the Republicans have to offer? A return to trickle-down economics and destruction of our social safety nets.
And yet, it seems a lot of Americans just don’t see this.
Paul C.
They’re locked into fearing and loathing of their countrymen.
-G